6:27 PM Tuesday, March 12, 2024
-Temperatures will be turning cooler but will still be running above normal through Saturday.
-Highs in the 40s and 50s Wednesday. Mainly in the 40s Thursday and Friday and in the 30s and 40s Saturday.
-Northeast wind develops near Lake Superior including in Duluth Wednesday and lingers into Thursday so it will feel a little chilly by the lake.
-Dry weather continues in the Northland through Friday.
-Some snow showers and flurries are likely this weekend with minor snow accumulations in northern Minnesota (north of Duluth) while a few inches of snow are possible late in the weekend along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin due to a potential for some lake effect snow.
-A more active weather pattern is possible after March 20th, and this active pattern could include both snow and rain chances in the Northland.
More record warmth in the Northland today, Tuesday, March 12, 2024.
- Ashland, WI: New record high 67. Old record high 64 set in 2016.
- Duluth, MN: New record high 64. Old record high 60 set in 2016.
- Brainerd, MN: 64* Tied the record high for March 12th which was set in 2016.
Normal highs on March 12th
Brainerd: 38
Ashland: 36
Duluth: 35
International Falls: 34
Hibbing: 34
Another very mild late winter day across the region with widespread 50s and 60s this afternoon with a few 70s over eastern Wisconsin.
Temperatures were running some +20 to +35 degrees above normal in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon.
Note: 18.7 inches of snow so far this season (since Oct.1) in Duluth. This is -54.7 inches below normal to date. By this time last year, 116.4 inches of snow had fallen in Duluth with a snow depth of 37 inches measured on March 12th. We’ve seen -97.7 inches less snow this winter compared to last winter through March 12th.
A clipper system passes north/east of our area this weekend and this system will likely usher in a pattern change while also producing a little snow.
Snow showers and flurries Saturday with up to an inch of snow possible in northern Minnesota (north of Duluth)
The focus will then shift to the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin where some lake effect snow is possible Sunday with a chance for about 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation (highest totals east of Ashland)
As we get into next week, we definitely see a pattern change as lower 500mb heights develop which is represented by the blue and green colors on the map below.
This new pattern has a chance to turn more active across the upper Midwest and in the Northland later next week.
EPS model 500mb forecast valid March 20-25, 2024.
We also see a rare sight this winter and that would be a chance for below average temperatures across the Northland next week.
EPS model temperature anomaly forecast valid March 20-25, 2024.
Here’s the EPS model 50-member snowfall forecast for Duluth over about the next 2 weeks ending March 27th.
There’s 16/50 members forecasting at least 4 inches of snow through March 27th, with 5 of those members forecasting double digit snow totals (10″+) with a high-end amount of 24 inches.
The majority of the 50 members are forecasting 4″ or less of snow through March 27th.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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