6:41 PM Friday, March 15, 2024
A cooler weather pattern will arrive this weekend and could linger through much of next week.
- February 29th was the last time Duluth recorded a below average temperature (over 2 weeks ago)
- 4 days this month with a temperature of at least 50 degrees in Duluth. Average number of days at or above 50 in March is 2 days.
- 2 days this month with a temperature of at least 60 degrees in Duluth. Average number of days at or above 60 in March is 0.
A pattern we’ve seen so many times this winter in Duluth where above average temperatures far outweigh the number of days with a below average temperature.
Just since February 1st, Duluth has had 41/44 days with an above average temperature (red) compared to just 3/44 days which have been below average (blue).
A strong area of low pressure averaging 996mb centered over western Ontario late this afternoon will move east-southeast as it passes north of Lake Superior through Saturday morning.
This system will produce gusty winds and colder temperatures in the Northland this weekend along with a few snow showers and flurries.
As for wind speeds, we’re looking at gusts of around 20 to 35 mph in the Northland tonight and Saturday with southwest winds shifting to the northwest.
A few rain and snow showers in the Northland tonight will transition to a few snow showers and flurries Saturday with some lingering snow showers and flurries possible on Sunday.
Lake effect snow develops Sunday along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin with some snow accumulation likely.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 7 PM Sunday.
Snowfall accumulations of a trace to 1 inch are possible in parts of northeast Minnesota Saturday, and in northwest Wisconsin Sunday, with higher snowfall accumulations of 2 to 5 inches possible east of Ashland on Sunday.
Note: Still no snow in Duluth so far this month. Normal snowfall in Duluth in March is 12.8 inches.
A snowier pattern is possible in Duluth beginning later next week and continuing through the end of the month, but since this is still about a week or so away, things could change.
But today we’ve seen quite an increase in the number of EPS model members which are forecasting accumulating snow in Duluth over about the next 2 weeks or through March 30th, with the bulk of it coming around or after March 21st.
45/50 members forecast 4″+ snow totals.
24/50 members forecast 10″+ snow totals.
6/50 members forecast 20″+ snow totals with a high-end amount of 38″.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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