5:05 PM Thursday, March 14, 2024
Active weather occurring again today well south of the Northland with a winter storm ongoing in parts of Colorado with reports of a foot or more of snow, including a report of nearly 10 inches of snow near Denver. And we’re also seeing more severe thunderstorms producing large hail (some very large) along with damaging winds and some tornadoes stretching from eastern Oklahoma to Ohio this afternoon.
A strong cold front will cross the Northland Friday night bringing gusty winds and colder temperatures this weekend and will also see a few rain and snow showers pass through the area late Friday afternoon-evening followed by a few snow showers and flurries Saturday and Sunday, but no major accumulation of rain or snow is expected the next few days.
One more mild day ahead on Friday with highs in the 40s to lower 50s but it will be a tad breezy especially in the afternoon. Highs Saturday will be in 30s to lower 40s with highs Sunday only in the middle 20s to lower 30s.
Still looks like will see a little bit of snow return to parts of the Northland this weekend but with only very light accumulations if any.
Anywhere from a trace to 1 inch of snow is possible Saturday over parts of northeast Minnesota, and then the South Shore of Lake Superior could see a little lake effect snow on Sunday with snow accumulations of a trace to 2 inches possible (highest amounts east of Ashland)
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 1 PM Friday to 1 PM Saturday.
Rain (green)
Snow (blue)
Some lift (orange and red colors on the map below) will move southeast across the Northland late Friday afternoon/night which should help to produce a little bit of light precipitation.
NAM model 500mb forecast valid 1 PM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.
Windy weather Friday into Saturday as a strong area of low pressure passes north of our area while a colder airmass arrives on Saturday. All of this will cause some blustery conditions across the Northland with southwest winds Friday afternoon-evening shifting to the northwest on Saturday. Wind gusts of 15 to 30 mph are likely with higher gusts to 40 mph not out of the question especially Friday night into Saturday morning.
NAM 3km model wind gust forecast valid 1 PM Friday to 1 PM Saturday.
Lower 500mb heights (blue and green colors on the map below) and an overall cooler weather pattern looks likely next week and possibly continuing through the end of the month, and this pattern also has a chance to turn active at times with snow and or rain chances in the Northland around or after March 22nd.
Here’s the updated EPS model 50-member snowfall forecast for Duluth through March 29th.
We’ve seen a little bit of a decrease in the number of members forecasting 4 or more inches of snow, and also 10 or more inches of snow compared to this forecast 24 hours ago.
30/50 members forecast 4 or more inches of snow through March 29th.
10/50 members forecast 10 or more inches of snow through March 29th with a high-end amount of 19 inches.
Bottom line is that will likely see some snow in Duluth by the end of the month, but how much is unknown.
Mild temperatures continued today especially inland from Lake Superior where we saw widespread 50s this afternoon, but near Lake Superior a stronger northeast wind helped to keep temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s today, but this is still a little above normal for mid-March.
More severe weather in parts of the Midwest and southern Plains today with a couple of tornado watches (red on map) in effect into this evening.
Quite an impressive looking satellite loop showing the severe thunderstorms moving across parts of Missouri and neighboring states this afternoon.
Goes-16 sandwich satellite loop from Thursday, March 14, 2024, ending 4:51 PM CT.
113 filtered severe weather reports over parts of the central Plains on Wednesday with large hail reports leading the way with 88 reports of quarter size hail or bigger.
There were also 4 tornado reports in Kansas Wednesday evening.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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