6:43 PM Wednesday, March 20, 2024
A potentially messy spring storm could hit the Northland early next week.
For weather enthusiasts or to those who would like to see at least one big winter storm hit the Northland before spring arrives, the next few days will be a wild ride of model watching as the models fine tune many important parts to this forecast.
For Duluth
- A slower arrival time to the precipitation with most of the day Sunday looking dry now.
- Precipitation, most likely snow spreads slowly north reaching Duluth sometime Sunday night/Monday morning.
- A surge of warmer air lifts north/west out of southern Minnesota Monday with precipitation type issues possible Monday night-Tuesday (Wet snow or rain)
- Strong northeast winds develop Sunday, strongest winds Sunday night through Tuesday morning with wind gusts to 45 mph with higher gusts possible.
The battle will be on between a very strong high (>1040mb) over central Ontario/ north of Lake Superior and a strong low over the central Plains.
The high in Ontario will send dry air southward into the Northland while the low over the Plains pumps moisture to the north.
How long the high holds its influence on the Northland is uncertain right now, as there is a chance that we won’t begin to get any precipitation in much of our area until sometime Sunday night or Monday due to the amount of dry air coming out of central Canada.
Storm track for early next week has also shifted a little farther west which introduces the possibility that will see snow change over to rain in at least northwest Wisconsin and far eastern/northeast Minnesota including in the Duluth area.
There’s still some model difference regarding the storm track early next week with the low either passing west of Duluth or through northwest Wisconsin. The farther west this low goes the better chance that will see rain instead of snow in Duluth early next week especially as we get into the Monday night/Tuesday time frame.
Note: I won’t be issuing a snowfall forecast for this potential storm until Saturday, but maybe as soon as Friday if there’s strong agreement in the computer models by then, so for now I’ll continue to show what a few of the models are showing for potential snow totals early next week.
All hope is not lost if you want a lot of snow in Duluth as there’s still 40/50 EPS members forecasting at least 10 inches of snow in Duluth early next week, with 2/50 members forecasting 20 or more inches of snow.
High-end snow amount for Duluth is at 23 inches, and the low-end snow amount is at 4 inches.
NWS Blend of Models is at 18.8 inches of snow in Duluth through 7 PM next Tuesday with most of this coming early next week, but this forecast does include both snow events added together, the one Thursday night, and the other late this weekend/early next week.
GEFS model 20-member precipitation type forecast valid for 7 PM Monday, March 25, 2024.
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Wind will likely be an issue late this weekend into early next week due to the very tight pressure gradient which will develop between the high to our north and the low approaching from the south.
Northeasterly winds will increase during the day on Sunday and will be strongest from Sunday night through Tuesday morning when we could have wind gusts >40 mph near Lake Superior and in the Duluth area.
If we do end up getting snow in Duluth Sunday night/Monday, then we could be dealing with quite a bit of blowing snow due to these strong winds.
European model wind gust forecast valid 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM Tuesday.
Thanks for reading!
Tim