6:38 PM Wednesday, April 24, 2024
The dry weather will persist through Thursday, followed by periods of rain thereafter.
There are discrepancies in the timing predictions of computer models for the onset of rain on Friday. Some models indicate the rain could start in the morning, while others suggest it may hold off until the afternoon or even the evening.
The NAM 3km model is indeed among the faster models indicating that rain will extend northward into Duluth after 6 AM on Friday morning.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Friday to 1 AM Saturday.
The European model, as indicated, does not forecast the rain to move northward into Duluth until late Friday afternoon or evening.
European model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Friday to 7 PM Saturday.
Total precipitation and deviation from the norm for April 2024 (through the 23rd)
Source: MNDNR
Brainerd, MN: 2.20″, +0.36″ above normal
Two Harbors, MN: 1.69″, -0.29″ below normal
Brule, WI (Ranger Station) 1.57″, -0.56″ below normal
Superior, WI: 1.50″, -0.43″ below normal
Duluth, MN: 1.22″, -0.64″ below normal
Gordon, WI: 1.14, -1.00″ below normal
International Falls, MN: 0.51″, -0.68″ below normal
Northwest Wisconsin and the neighboring regions of east central Minnesota have experienced the highest precipitation levels this month, whereas northern Minnesota has recorded lower amounts.
In the Northland, precipitation levels are ranging from approximately -0.25″ to -1.00″ below the monthly average, with the exception of the far southern regions, including the Brainerd area, where there has been an excess of +0.25″ above the normal this month.
Percent of normal precipitation so far this month (thru the 23rd)
Currently observing consecutive low-pressure systems moving northeast from the central Plains, expected from Friday to Monday.
The initial system will move from the south to the north on Friday, continuing into early Saturday afternoon. The subsequent system is expected to arrive on Sunday during the day and may persist into Monday morning.
There is a high probability that a considerable area of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will receive at least an inch of rain by next Monday, and some regions may even experience up to two inches.
NWS Blend of Models forecast
Strong northeast winds are expected near Lake Superior and in the Twin Ports area on Friday, and they may return from Sunday into Monday morning. Wind gusts could reach approximately 30 mph on Friday, with the potential for even stronger gusts on Sunday, possibly up to 45 mph.
European model wind gust forecast valid 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM Monday.
A period of severe thunderstorms is anticipated to start on Thursday and persist throughout the weekend across the central and southern Plains.
Note: The likelihood of a few non-severe thunderstorms persists in parts of the Northland, particularly with the system arriving on Friday. This is due to the potential northward movement of elevated instability, which could generate a few storms in our region.
The forecast for Thursday indicates an Enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms in the designated orange area on the map.
The potential for a few strong tornadoes (EF2 or higher) exists this Thursday in areas of west central Kansas, west central Oklahoma, and the eastern Texas Panhandle, specifically within the delineated hatched region on the map.
The risk for severe thunderstorms persists into Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, particularly in the areas marked in yellow and orange on the accompanying maps.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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