6:31 PM Friday, April 26, 2024
An active storm track is established from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest. It’s fortunate that this weather pattern didn’t happen a month earlier; otherwise, we might have had sufficient cold air for these systems to generate snow or ice, potentially leading to snowfall measurements in feet in some areas of the Northland.
Three weather systems are expected to affect the Northland region until the middle of next week.
The initial weather system will persist into early Saturday afternoon, followed by a second system arriving Sunday afternoon and lasting into Monday morning. A third system may affect the Northland by late Tuesday.
- Rain is expected to persist into Saturday morning, with occasional breaks likely.
- Isolated non-severe thunderstorms possible tonight.
- Patchy fog tonight into Saturday morning.
- A pause in the rainfall is expected on Saturday afternoon, continuing into Sunday morning.
For the Duluth area: Expect intermittent rain, drizzle, and areas of fog tonight through Saturday morning. The rain is forecasted to diminish by Saturday afternoon. Expect gusty northeast winds up to 35 mph tonight lasting into early Saturday morning. The winds will shift to the northwest by Saturday afternoon.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 7 PM Saturday.
By next Monday, northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin are likely to receive widespread precipitation totaling 1 to 2 inches.
Currently it looks like will see the second system arrive in the Northland from south to north Sunday afternoon with precipitation expected to begin in the Twin Ports around 12-2 PM Sunday. Note: The timing of Sunday’s precipitation could shift slightly to a later onset than currently anticipated.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM Monday.
Computer models suggest the potential for cold air to settle in for several hours on Sunday afternoon and evening, which may result in freezing rain and ice accumulation in northeast Minnesota, particularly on the elevated terrain away from Lake Superior.
There are low chances of seeing ice accumulations in the specified area later on Sunday, given that it is late April when the sun angle is higher and surfaces are warmer, which may hinder ice formation. However, it will still require monitoring just in case.
Expect strong northeast winds, with gusts ranging from 30 to 50 mph, in the vicinity of Lake Superior, including the Duluth area, from Sunday into early Monday morning.
NAM 3km model wind gust forecast valid 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM Monday.
Around 3:40 PM today, a tornado emergency was declared for areas in southwest Iowa and east central Nebraska because of a large, destructive tornado advancing quickly northeastward at 45 mph.
This radar image from around 4 PM today shows a storm with a tornado warning. It displays a classic tornado signature as detected by Doppler radar.
The 60-minute rotation tracks reveal maxed-out values (indicated by blue colors on the image) extending from around Elkhorn to Blair in far eastern Nebraska, northwest of Omaha. This clearly indicates a very strong rotation on the Doppler radar associated with the tornado this afternoon.
Multiple tornado watches are currently active, spanning from eastern Nebraska and western Iowa down to central Texas for the remainder of the evening.
53 preliminary filtered tornado reports so far today (thru 6:20 PM CT Friday)
Today presents a classic severe weather scenario in the Plains, characterized by abundant low-level moisture flowing northward on southerly winds, as dry air advances from the southwest.
This weekend, the central and southern Plains, stretching northeast to the central-eastern Great Lakes, are likely to experience more severe thunderstorms.
Severe weather hazards will persist throughout Saturday and Sunday, encompassing large hail, destructive winds, and multiple tornadoes, some potentially intense.
An enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms is forecasted for Saturday in the region highlighted in orange on the map provided.
The likelihood of strong tornadoes (EF2 or stronger) is greatest on Saturday within the delineated hatched area on the map.
Sunday’s severe thunderstorm risk is highest in the yellow area depicted on the map below.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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