5:44 PM Sunday, June 2, 2024
Multiple chances for some rain over the next few days.
Here’s the timing of when we could get some rain in Duluth.
- Tonight into early Monday morning (mainly before 7 AM)
- Tuesday afternoon/evening
- Wednesday afternoon
Note: The initial rain system is expected to move out of the Twin Ports area to the north/east, likely before 7 AM on Monday. Provided that no further showers develop in the afternoon, the weather should remain dry at least until Tuesday morning.
HRRR model simulated radar forecast through 1 PM Monday.
Radar loop ends 5:10 PM Sunday, June 2, 2024.
Forecasting rainfall during the summer months is particularly challenging due to thunderstorms that often result in significantly higher but localized rainfall totals.
Generally, the Northland can expect rainfall ranging from approximately 0.10 inches to 0.50 inches through Monday morning, with the potential for localized areas to receive an inch or more.
The HREF model indicates a strong likelihood of the heaviest rainfall occurring from northwest to western, central, and southern Minnesota, while northern Wisconsin and parts of northeast Minnesota are expected to receive lesser amounts of rain with tonight’s system.
Expect surges of stronger atmospheric lift, indicated by brighter colors on the loop below, to pass through the Northland in waves over the coming days.
The initial system will move over the area tonight into early Monday morning, followed by another wave on Tuesday and an additional one on Wednesday afternoon. It is during these periods, when stronger forcing moves across the region, that the majority of the rainfall is expected in the Northland.
NAM Model 700mb forecast through 7 PM Wednesday.
The likelihood of severe thunderstorms in the Northland tonight is quite low, as the most significant instability is situated far to the west-southwest, with our area experiencing considerably less instability.
There remains a possibility of isolated severe storms tonight, primarily affecting the western and southern regions of the Northland, or areas west of a line from International Falls to Aitkin. It is important to note that gusty winds and small hail are the main concerns should these stronger storms materialize tonight.
Multiple severe thunderstorm watches and a tornado watch are in effect through this evening, spanning from areas of the Dakotas and southwest Minnesota to Texas.
The severe weather season of 2024 has had a sluggish beginning in the Northland, with the National Weather Service in Duluth issuing merely five warnings to date, an increase from the single warning issued by June 2nd the previous year.
Since 2010, the year with the highest activity was 2011, which saw 73 warnings issued in the Northland by June 2nd.
A zonal flow is impacting the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies today, which transitions into a southwest flow aloft over the Upper Midwest.
In such a pattern, the heat remains over the Southwest US, while the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes experience seasonal temperatures.
Goes-16 water vapor loop ending 5:10 PM CT, Sunday, June 2, 2024.
Thanks for reading!
Tim