Northland Weather Update: Severe Thunderstorm Risk and Cooler Temperature Projections mid/late next week.

6:07 PM Tuesday, July 30, 2024

On Wednesday, parts of the Northland may experience scattered showers and thunderstorms as a disturbance, accompanied by a trough and cold front, moves eastward from the Dakotas. The Northland will encounter some instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates, approximately 7-8 C/km, which may lead to isolated strong or even severe thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and hail. However, a higher risk of severe thunderstorms exists further south, including western and south-central Minnesota, as well as parts of Nebraska and Iowa. These areas will be nearer to a low-pressure area and warm front, providing better wind shear and significantly higher instability on Wednesday.

Here’s the NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday.

Certain areas in the Northland may receive a half-inch to an inch or more of rain on Wednesday. However, this will not be a widespread rain event; rather, it will be a scattered occurrence with localized areas experiencing heavy downpours.

To sum it up even better, some areas receive abundant rainfall, others experience very little.

Today, there are two disturbances to be aware of. The first is moving eastward and will be leaving the Northland by late afternoon. Meanwhile, upstream over the northern Rockies, another disturbance is forming, which is expected to move east-southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest in the coming days.

Goes-16 water vapor loop ending 4:56 PM CT Tuesday, July 30, 2024.

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for regions of the Dakotas and northern Nebraska until later tonight. Primary threats include damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail up to 2 inches in diameter.

Note: Severe thunderstorm warnings in the yellow outlined areas on the loop below.

Radar loop ends 5:12 PM CT Tuesday, July 30, 2024.

The Northland experienced another warm afternoon after the clouds and rain cleared. Widespread temperatures in the 80s were recorded across the region, with slightly cooler readings in the 70s near Lake Superior.

Note: The Duluth Airport recorded a temperature of 80 just before 1 PM today, marking the 16th day this month with a high of 80 degrees or more.

Dew points remain high in the mid-60s to 70s across the region this afternoon, though parts of northern Minnesota are experiencing some drier air with lower dew points, which is more of an exception than the norm.

Expect more humid weather in the days ahead.

Today, the central and southern Plains are experiencing intense heat, with temperatures ranging from 95 to 105 degrees or even higher.

The forecast indicates a continued risk of cooler temperatures next week across the northern Plains, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes regions.

Highs are expected to range from the 60s to around 70 degrees, with lows in the 40s and 50s in the Northland from mid to late next week. While frost potential is not an immediate concern, it is approaching.

The GEFS model concurs with the EPS model about the cooler risk projections for the upcoming week.

The blue colors on the loop indicate areas that are expected to experience below-average temperatures next week.

Thanks for reading!

Tim