Weather Blog for Duluth and the Northland

5:21 PM Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Today’s weather discussion includes a cold front moving east from the Dakotas on Thursday. However, this front is not expected to move much farther south than north-central Minnesota before it retreats northward as a warm front on Friday.

Ahead of this front, southerly winds will contribute to moisture accumulation on Thursday, and adequate lift is expected to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across parts of the Northland from Thursday into early Friday morning. While severe weather is not anticipated on Thursday, heavy downpours could occur as precipitable water values are forecasted to rise to around 1.50 inches or higher.

As we approach Friday afternoon, the weather is expected to become calmer throughout much of the weekend. However, two weather systems are forecasted to pass through the upper Midwest next week: the first one around Sunday night to Monday, and the second between Wednesday and Thursday. Currently, the midweek system appears to be the more intense of the two. There will be possibilities of showers or thunderstorms associated with both systems next week.

Setup for Thursday 8/22/2024

Note: Cold front in blue on the map below.

Future radar forecast

It appears that an area of showers and possibly some thunderstorms may move eastward across parts of the Northland on Thursday. However, there is a higher likelihood of showers along with a few thunderstorms Thursday night into early Friday morning.

HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM Friday.

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Rainfall Forecasts

The HREF model forecasts a few areas of higher rainfall, ranging from 1-2 inches, in northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin (indicated by the lighter blue and purple areas on the map) from late Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning.

The NWS Blend of Models predicts approximately 0.10 to 0.50 inches of rainfall across much of northeast Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin by Friday morning.

Upper-Level Analysis

The 500mb analysis from this afternoon indicates a trough in the west and another to the east, with a ridge situated between them extending from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and into Central Canada.

The trough over the western US is expected to persist through this weekend. Meanwhile, a piece of energy will eject from this trough, moving across the northern Plains and upper Midwest on Thursday. Concurrently, a more vigorous and deeper trough will establish itself over the western US and Rockies this weekend.

Thanks for reading!

Tim