Weather Blog for Duluth and the Northland

5:05 PM Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Before I get into the weather, I just wanted to wish you a Merry Christmas.

It is official: Duluth experienced a white Christmas this year, with a reported snow depth of 5 inches on top of the hill.

There have only been five years (see below) on record where Duluth did not experience a white Christmas, which is defined as having at least one inch of snow on ground on December 25th.

• 2023
• 2006
• 1979
• 1939
• 1923

-The highest recorded snow depth in Duluth on Christmas Day was in 1983, with a snow depth of 28 inches.

-The warmest Christmas on record in Duluth was set just last year with a high of 46 degrees. The coldest Christmas on record was -34 degrees in 1879.

-The snowiest Christmas on record in Duluth occurred in 2009, with 12.4 inches of snowfall.

More Fog ahead

This afternoon, some sunshine has been observed in parts of northwest Wisconsin, particularly around Bayfield and Ashland, extending south to Hayward and eastward. However, the remainder of the Northland has continued to experience overcast conditions with areas of fog.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop ending 3:10 PM CT Wednesday, December 25, 2024.

Areas of fog will persist in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight and Thursday, with visibility of a mile or less, particularly in the darker-colored areas on the loop below. Fog will likely continue to be an issue in the Northland at least through Saturday.

HRRR model visibility forecast through 6 PM Thursday.

Wet system on the way

A complex system is expected to move into the Upper Midwest on Friday and linger into Saturday.

This will be a warm system, with access to a significant amount of moisture for this time of year, as precipitable water values increase to as much as 0.75 inches in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Here is the NAM 500mb forecast from 6 PM on Friday to 12 PM on Saturday, with the brighter colors indicating more intense lift in the atmosphere and increased chances for precipitation.

Rain and drizzle are forecasted to begin in Duluth during the day on Friday, with precipitation continuing through Friday night and Saturday morning before ending on Saturday afternoon. Note – Some of the precipitation may fall as wet snow on Saturday morning.

European model precipitation type forecast valid 6 AM Friday to 6 PM Saturday.

Rain – Green
Snow/Wintry mix – Blue and pink

Precipitation totals ranging from one tenth to one quarter inch are likely across much of the Northland from Friday to Saturday with higher amounts of around half an inch or more possible, especially near Lake Superior.

As previously mentioned, this system will be warmer; however, some computer models indicate that there may be sufficient atmospheric cooling to potentially cause the rain to transition to a few hours of wet snow on Saturday morning over parts of the Northland.

Note – There has been a lack of snow in Duluth so far this season with a snowfall deficit of 18.4 inches since October 1st and 8.5 inches below normal for December alone.

Temperatures are quite borderline for snow, with 850mb temperatures at -1°C Saturday morning.

While 925mb temperatures fall to around 0C early Saturday, the determining factor will be the low-level temperatures.

Surface temperatures are expected to range from around 32 to 34 degrees, which is not ideal for snow but certainly cold enough to support it. Therefore, it is uncertain whether we will see just rain or a changeover from rain to snow Saturday morning.