5:05 PM Friday, March 14, 2025
Some of the same areas in southwest and west-central Minnesota that are seeing temperatures in the 60s and 70s this afternoon are under blizzard warnings on Saturday.
Various winter weather alerts cover western and northern Minnesota for Saturday, including a winter storm warning for International Falls, Bigfork, Cass Lake, and Walker in north central portions of Minnesota.
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast as of late Friday afternoon.
-Highest snow totals will be in the far northwest portion of the area, and this snow will begin by mid to late morning on Saturday, with rain and a wintry mix preceding the changeover Saturday morning.
-Less than an inch of snow for Duluth mid to late afternoon on Saturday.
A period of freezing rain with some ice accumulation is possible early to mid-morning on Saturday in parts of west-central and northern Minnesota.
Duluth area: Temperatures in the 40s Saturday morning are expected to fall to the upper 20s to lower 30s Saturday afternoon by around 4 PM.
Euro model temperature forecast valid 7 AM to 7 PM Saturday.
Much of the Northland can expect a quarter to half an inch of precipitation by Saturday evening, with a half inch to inch or more of precipitation possible for the northwest portions of our area.
Rain – green
Snow – blue
Wintry Mix – purple and pink
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 7 PM Saturday.
A strong mid-latitude cyclone over western Kansas today is pulling up plenty of very warm air ahead of the low, with temperatures in the 70s as far north as southern Minnesota and central and southern Wisconsin this afternoon, with some 80s farther south. Meanwhile, on the backside of the low, we have much colder conditions with temperatures in the teens, 20s, and 30s today.
Strong low pressure of around 28.88 inches or 978 mb over western Kansas this afternoon will reach southern Minnesota by 7 AM Saturday and will be located north of Lake Superior by 7 PM Saturday. This low will deepen a little more down to around 976mb/28.82 inches.
Lots of wind with such a deep storm. Wind alerts are widespread!
Duluth area: Northwest winds increase Saturday afternoon with gusts of 25 to 45 mph. Expect the windy conditions to persist into Saturday night and early Sunday morning.
HRRR model wind gust forecast valid 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM Sunday.
Goes-16 water vapor loop ending 2:26 PM CT Friday, March 14, 2025.
Radar loop ends 4:58 PM CT Friday, March 14, 2025.
Tornado Watch (red)
Severe Thunderstorm Watch (yellow)
Higher quality moisture (dews 55+) is confined to central Illinois and points south today, but some moisture extends farther north into the upper Midwest with dew points in the 40s today.
Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Tonight — A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for all of northwest Wisconsin and east-central Minnesota, with hail and gusty winds being the main hazards if thunderstorms develop. Mid-level lapse rates are very steep, ranging from around 7.0-8.5 c/km tonight, so that does increase the potential for some hail should storms develop in the Northland tonight.
A much greater risk for severe thunderstorms exists farther south for tonight, especially in the orange and red areas on the map, with all hazards including damaging winds of 75 to 90+ mph, large hail up to baseball size, and tornadoes.
The threat for severe thunderstorms is at the highest level it can reach on Saturday, with a high risk or level 5/5 for severe thunderstorms centered on central and eastern Mississippi into western and central Alabama.
A tornado outbreak is likely Saturday across the central Gulf Coast states and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which are expected to be long-track and potentially violent, are anticipated Saturday afternoon and evening.
Thanks for reading!
Leave a Reply