6:40 PM Tuesday, March 25, 2025
There remains a possibility of freezing rain in parts of the Northland, particularly from Friday afternoon to early Saturday morning.
Temperatures aloft will be well above freezing (0°C) on Friday, while colder air moves in near the surface on strong northeasterly winds. This setup is conducive to the development of freezing rain in parts of the Northland from Friday to early Saturday morning. The amount of ice accumulation remains uncertain at this time, but there is potential for around a tenth of an inch or more of ice accumulation in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
The forecast from Friday through early Sunday features strong high pressure across central Canada near Hudson Bay, accompanied by several waves of low pressure moving east-northeast out of the central Plains. The high pressure to the north will direct cold air southward into the Northland, while the low pressure systems to the south will attempt to push moisture northward into colder air. The extent to which moisture can travel northward is uncertain, and the paths of the low-pressure systems are also uncertain.
The possible scenarios include freezing rain from Friday to early Saturday morning, followed by mainly dry conditions for the rest of the weekend.
Another scenario involves freezing rain from Friday to early Saturday, followed by another round of winter precipitation from Saturday afternoon to Sunday. This second round precipitation could include snow accumulation, as temperatures aloft would become cold enough to support snow instead of freezing rain in parts of the Northland.
There continues to be a possibility of a more significant snow/ice event occurring in parts of the Northland between Friday afternoon to Sunday morning. Please check back for updates.
This month and really throughout this winter, we have observed two distinct storm tracks, one favoring northern Minnesota the other favoring areas to the south. Consequently, the area in between, including the Duluth region, has experienced minimal snowfall this month.
Snowfall totals this month as of 4 PM on the 25th
Marquette, MI: 33.6 inches
International Falls, MN: 16.7 inches
Minneapolis, MN: 9.5 inches
Green Bay, WI: 8.1 inches
Duluth, MN: 4.0 inches
Eau Claire, WI: 3.3 inches
St. Cloud, MN: 0.9 inches
Euro model total ice — Duluth’s amount is at 0.17 inches.
Euro ensemble model total ice — Dultuh’s amount ranges from a low-end of nothing to a high-end amount of 0.26 inches.
NWS Blend of Models total ice — Duluth’s amount is at 0.04 inches of ice accumulation.
It appears that it will be quite windy near Lake Superior and in the Twin Ports from Friday to Sunday morning, with northeast winds gusting between 25 to 45 mph at times.
Euro model wind gust forecast valid 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Sunday.
We’re still looking at a large temperature contrast in Minnesota on Friday with 70s and even a few 80s across southern Minnesota to temperatures around 30 to 35 degrees in northeast Minnesota.
Some elevated instability, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates, may be sufficient to initiate a few thunderstorms on Friday and Friday night, particularly in central and southern Minnesota into Wisconsin.
Thanks for reading!