Thick wildfire smoke is covering much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin once again today, creating hazardous conditions. In some areas near Lake Superior, the smoke has been so dense that visibility has dropped to less than a mile.
In Duluth, the AQI has soared to between 700 and over 900 today, which is essentially off the charts for the second day in a row. This signals a health emergency, with wildfire smoke impacting everyone.
Here’s what the colors mean in the Air Quality Index
Hazardous wildfire smoke is expected to linger over much of the Northland tonight, with some improvement in air quality likely moving from southwest to northeast during the day on Friday.
The exception might be around Lake Superior, including Duluth and Superior, where heavy wildfire smoke could hang around until Friday night.
Also, more smoke is expected to drift south from Ontario this weekend.
If rainfall turns out to be heavier over the fires than expected, we could see less smoke, especially this weekend. It’s really a wait-and-see situation to find out how much rain actually falls over the fires on Friday.
HRRR model near-surface smoke density forecast through 1 PM Saturday.
More noticeable near-surface smoke appears in shades of orange, red, and purple on the loop below.
Several large fires are still burning in far northeast Minnesota today. Some rain is expected over the next 24 hours, which might help a bit, but overall, there’s probably not going to be much improvement in the wildfire situation up north anytime soon.
Thumb Fire: 15,394 acres
Bear Trap Fire: 13,500 acres
Sioux Fire: 10,838 acres
Camp Fire: 4,175 acres
Chub Fire: 337 acres
Canada is on fire, with red icons marking out-of-control blazes and purple icons showing monitored but still out-of-control fires. This map is from today, July 16, 2026.
…Rain Chances through Friday evening…
A low-pressure system, bringing both a warm front and a cold front, will move across the Northland tonight and Friday before heading east and clearing out by late Friday night.
Southerly winds ahead of this system will pull moisture north into the area, pushing dew points into the 60s and low 70s through Friday. By Saturday, winds will shift north, bringing in drier air behind the system.
Scattered rain showers are likely in the Northland as this system moves through tonight into Friday. While widespread heavy rain isn’t expected, some areas could see brief heavier downpours. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible during this time, with a slight chance of gusty winds and hail up to 1 inch in diameter.
In Duluth: If we see any rain from this system, the best chance will be late Friday afternoon into early evening, roughly between 5 and 8 PM.
There’s still a big gap between models on rainfall amounts through Friday evening in the fire zones of far northeast Minnesota. The blended models suggest half an inch or more of rain by then, while the Euro is calling for only about 0.1 inches, with some higher totals possible in the Arrowhead.
…Temperatures…
Today, July 16th marked the first time since July 8th where the high temperature failed to reach at least 80 degrees in Duluth with the high today of 79.
From Friday through Sunday, northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will see highs in the 70s and 80s, with a few areas possibly hitting the 90s especially if the smoke remains light.
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