🌬️ Cold Front Arrives Monday Evening; Scattered Showers Here, Stronger Storms Farther Southwest

A cold front will move through the Northland Monday evening. Ahead of it, dew points will mostly be in the 50s to around 60, with the highest instability from western to southwestern Minnesota and areas farther south. In our area, expect scattered showers and isolated, non-severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon and evening, while the greatest potential for severe weather will be farther southwest, where moisture and instability are higher.

In the Duluth area, some rain showers are possible mostly Monday evening after 6 PM.

Here’s a look at the NAM-Nest model for late Monday afternoon, which indicates scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across western to northern Minnesota. The rain is expected to move southeast into Monday evening, though exactly how far east it will reach before tapering off remains uncertain, as has been common with many recent systems.

…High Temperature Trends in Duluth this month…

So far this month, only one day in Duluth has reached 80 degrees, on August 6th; all other days have stayed in the 70s. This is a significant drop from July, when Duluth recorded 21 days at 80 degrees or higher.

On average, Duluth experiences seven days at or above 80 in August.

…Daily average temperature departure in Duluth this month…

The daily average temperatures in Duluth this month have closely aligned with seasonal norms, with six days slightly warmer and eight days slightly cooler than average.

…Dew Points…

Dew points in Duluth have been noticeably lower this month compared to July, generally ranging from the mid-50s to low 60s, whereas in July they often reached the upper 60s and even into the 70s.

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Mid- to upper-level pattern shows broad ridging over the southern U.S., with some troughing and a west-northwest flow across the upper Midwest into central Canada. Overall, this pattern is similar to what we’ve seen in recent weeks, and little change is expected throughout the week.

This pattern will keep the intense heat well south of the Northland this week, while our region will experience two cold fronts—one Monday evening and another around Friday. No significant widespread rain is expected across the Northland during this period.

The cold front moving through Monday evening could bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Northland. Although moisture is limited and instability is relatively weak, some areas may still see brief showers or storms.

Rainfall totals are expected to range from about 0.05 to 0.25 inches across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with locally higher amounts possible, particularly in north-central Minnesota.