A cold front will move slowly southeast from eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota between Thursday and Friday, while low pressure over the western High Plains shifts east-southeast, staying well south of the Northland.
Rainfall patterns with this system seem pretty chaotic, with showers and thunderstorms likely along the cold front in northern Minnesota on Thursday. Weak winds aloft mean these storms will probably move slowly, cycling through weakening and strengthening phases due to limited wind shear. Modest mid-level lapse rates should help keep the overall severe threat low, though a few isolated stronger storms could still pop up, bringing gusty winds and small hail.
Another area of rain is likely to develop, more organized and centered near the surface low in South Dakota and Nebraska, but much of it may pass south of the Northland from Thursday evening into Friday.
Note: In the Duluth area, if we do see some rain, it will most likely be later Thursday afternoon or Thursday night and could carry into Friday morning. However, my confidence in rain for Duluth has dropped a bit compared to what the guidance indicated on Tuesday.
The Euro model shows a good example of how the rain from this system might set up from Thursday into Friday, with two corridors of heavier rainfall totals and an area in between seeing less rain, at least based on the current outlook.
The northern zone might get between a quarter and half an inch of rain, with some spots possibly seeing an inch or more.
The southern zone might get widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, with some spots possibly seeing over 3 inches.
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A few instances of flash flooding could occur on Thursday and Friday, particularly in the yellow-shaded areas on the maps below. The green-shaded areas have a lower chance of flash flooding.
Thursday’s Outlook 7/30/2026
Friday’s Outlook 7/31/2026
It was a warm Wednesday across the Northland, with temperatures climbing into the mid-80s to lower 90s. Some of the highest readings today included
- Brainerd, MN: 93
- Walker, MN: 93
- Pine River, MN: 92
- Moose Lake, MN: 91
- Hinckley, MN: 91
- Siren, WI: 91
- Clam Lake, WI: 91
- Crane Lake, MN: 90
- McGregor, MN: 90
- Grand Rapids, MN: 90
- International Falls, MN: 90
- Longville, MN: 90
In the Twin Ports area, Wednesday’s temperatures ranged from 89°F at Superior Airport to 86°F at Duluth Airport, with a cooler 72°F at Duluth Sky Harbor Airport due to a light onshore wind near Lake Superior.
On Thursday, heat risks will be mostly moderate across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with a few red-marked spots facing major risks. The North Shore is expected to see minor heat risks, shown in yellow.
Thursday’s highs are expected to reach the 70s and 80s across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with some spots in east central Minnesota and parts of northern Wisconsin possibly hitting the 90s.
This afternoon, dew points were hovering in the muggy 60s to low 70s across the Northland.
It’ll remain muggy on Thursday and likely into Friday, with dew points staying in the 60s to low 70s.
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