Turning colder; some snow on the way Sunday-early Monday mainly across northwest Wisconsin, winter storm warnings and advisories in effect

-Winter Storm Warning (pink area on map below) in effect from 1 PM Sunday to 1 PM Monday for most of northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Port Wing, Bayfield, Washburn, Minong, Shell Lake, Winter, Hayward, Ashland, Glidden, Hurley and Gile.

-Winter Weather Advisory (purple area on map below) in effect from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM Monday for far northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Lake Nebagamon, Solon Springs, Webster, Siren and Grantsburg.

-Heavy, wet snow expected with the greatest accumulations in the winter storm warning area, roughly east of a line from Shell Lake to Ashland.

-Gusty north to northwest winds to 30 mph with areas of blowing and drifting snow possible Sunday night into Monday morning.

-Travel could be very difficult to impossible, especially in the winter storm warning area.

-Tree damage and scattered power outages are possible due to the weight of the snow sticking to trees and power lines.

National Weather Service winter weather headlines map as of 3:52 PM Saturday, April 11, 2020.

Here’s my snowfall forecast ending at Noon Monday.

I’m expecting tight snowfall gradients with this system, but that’s pretty typical for a spring storm.

*Anywhere from 2 to 7 inches of snow along and east of a line from Shell Lake to Ashland, but the greatest amounts should remain closer to the Hurley and Gile areas, south to Park Falls and Phillips.

*1 to 2 inches of snow for Siren, Minong, Solon Springs, Port Wing and Bayfield, and also in the tip of the Minnesota Arrohead including Grand Marais.

*Less than an inch of snow for Silver Bay, Two Harbors, Duluth and Superior as I think the dry air wins out with this one keeping the bulk of the snow off to our south and east.

Road Conditions

Minnesota https://lb.511mn.org/

Wisconsin https://511wi.gov/

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Finally seeing the closed low which had been over California the last few days open up while it moves east into the southwest US today while additional energy can be seen diving SE across the Northern Rockies. An active subtropical jet stream continues to be in place from the Baja region, ENE across the southern US.

Source: Goes-16 water vapor imagery 4.11.2020; https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/

Forecast storm track in red, and expected impacts from this spring storm over the next day or two.

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

There should be a sharp cutoff from snow to no snow Sunday afternoon, and that cutoff should setup over eastern/northeast Minnesota or possibly in far northwest Wisconsin. The reason for this is due to the amount of dry air which will be over northern Minnesota on Sunday with PWATS of less than a quarter inch, meanwhile a more humid flow will stretch from central Iowa to upper Michigan, but most of the Northland, outside of eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin will be cutoff from this flow of more moist air.

Source: 18z NAM model 4.11.2020; https://weather.cod.edu/

Here’s a look at the simulated radar forecast from 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM Monday per 18z NAM-WRF model from Saturday, April 11, 2020.

Snow gradually spreads NE into northwest Wisconsin Sunday morning/afternoon, and into the Arrowhead of Minnesota Sunday evening. Snow ends from west to east on Monday.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

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Still looking at a potential severe weather outbreak including the risk for strong tornadoes for Easter Sunday from Louisiana across the southeast US and Tennessee Valley with a moderate and enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms.

Source: SPC; https://www.pivotalweather.com/

A few rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to impact the southeast US beginning Sunday morning and continuing through late Sunday night. Tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds are possible with these storms on Sunday.

Radar animation valid from 8 PM EDT Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday.

Source: 18z HRRR model 4.11.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

…Weather Summary…

Tonight looks mainly dry in our area under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows ranging from the lower 20s to lower 30s with a few teens possible in far northern Minnesota. Winds north 10 to 20 mph.

Low pressure near the Texas Panhandle Sunday morning moves NE reaching lower Michigan by Monday morning while a trough digs SE into the upper Midwest. Some phasing will occur with the trough and surface low, and once that happens the low will deepen considerably in the Sunday night/Monday time frame.

Snow gradually lifts NE into northern Wisconsin on Sunday with dry weather in northern Minnesota. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny on Sunday with highs in the 30s. North winds 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.

Snow continues in northwest Wisconsin and Arrowhead of Minnesota Sunday night with dry conditions in northern Minnesota.

Monday features some lingering snow and flurries in far northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. It will be a brisk and chilly mid April day with highs only in the upper 20s and lower 30s with NW winds 15 to 30 mph.

Looks like a cold air mass will be with us through the middle of next week, thereafter we may warm up a bit, at least back toward average by late next week/next weekend.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind north to northwest 10 to 20 mph.

.Easter Sunday… Mostly cloudy (some sunny breaks possible) A few flurries possible. Cooler. High 35 to 40. Wind north 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday… Blustery. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35. Wind northwest 15 to 30 mph.

Normal temperatures for April 12

High 47
Low 29

Sunrise Sunday 6:26 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday 7:54 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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