Scattered rain and a few t-storms tonight; mild, dry and less humid Friday

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving northeast across parts of north-central Minnesota as of 5 PM Thursday while stronger thunderstorms move east across southern Minnesota.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible into this evening across all of northeast and east-central Minnesota and over parts of northwest Wisconsin where a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms continues (dark green area on map) Damaging wind gusts are the main threat if severe weather develops, otherwise we’re looking at a threat from torrential downpours and some lightning with any storm that develops through this evening.

Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening in areas shaded in lighter green on map.

Colder cloud tops (orange and red colors) indicative of stronger convection across southern Minnesota this afternoon, but the majority of these storms should pass south of the Northland this evening as they move ENE.

Source: Goes-16 sandwich loop 6.18.2020; https://weather.cod.edu

Scattered showers along with some thunderstorms are possible across most of the Northland this evening into early Friday morning as a cold front continues to move east out of western Minnesota.

Wind shear is on the low side as is the amount of instability this afternoon so the potential for severe weather is rather low, but with plenty of moisture pooling ahead of the approaching cold front (dew points in the 60s and PWS >1.50″) there will be torrential downpours where thunderstorms occur.

Simulated radar forecast valid through 7 AM Friday.

Source: 18z NAM 3km model 6.18.2020; https://weathermodels.com

Look to the west, this is where our weather will be coming from on Friday which will feature less humid conditions as a cold front moves through tonight which will usher in a drier air mass for Friday.

Highs on Friday are forecast to be in the 70s with a northwest wind at 10 to 20 mph.

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Quite an amplified weather pattern we’re in.

Upper lows covering the Ohio Valley, and over Saskatchewan province while a ridge is sandwiched in between.

Here’s a look at the pattern on Goes-16 water vapor imagery from June 18th, 2020.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu

…Record Warm Minimum Temperature tied at International Falls on Wednesday, June 17th, 2020 with a low of 70 degrees, this ties the previous record warm low temperature set on June 17th, 1995.

Note: On Wednesday, Brainerd, Duluth and Hibbing all had low temperatures which ranked in the top 5 warmest on record for June 17th.

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Drought continues to intensify across Minnesota with Moderate or D1 level drought impacting 19% of the state, up from 12% last week.

Almost all of northeast Minnesota is either in moderate drought or abnormally dry conditions in this week’s drought monitor update.

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

No changes in this week’s drought monitor update in Wisconsin with the extreme northwest portion of the state still in abnormally dry conditions.

The good news is that forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center are calling for the removal of drought conditions across Minnesota, the problem is this outlook is valid through September 30th which means that it may take a few months before drought conditions improve across our area.

Rainfall Reports from June 18, 2020 (ending 4 PM of the 18th)

Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu

Littlefork, MN: 0.56″

Pine River, MN: 0.47″

International Falls, MN: 0.32″

Brainerd, MN: 0.19″

Hill City, MN: 0.07″

Duluth Airport: 0.06″

Barnes, WI: 0.04″

Note: Today, June 18th marks the 6th day this month with a high of at least 80 degrees in Duluth. The normal number of 80 degree or warmer days in the month of June is 5. Most 80 degree days on record for the month of June was in 1910 (17 days) Fewest was in 1998, 1981, 1916, 1915, 1904 and 1877 (0 days)

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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