Long Range Forecast for June 2022

4:50 PM Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Persistent troughing may setup over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes during the month of June while a ridge is forecast to setup over the southwest/western U.S. This type of pattern would put the Northland in a NW flow aloft leading to cooler than average temperatures overall during the month of June. Will see what happens.

Advertisements
June Climate Normals and Records for Duluth, Minnesota

Normal high on the 1st: 68
Normal high on the 30th: 76

Normal low on the 1st: 46
Normal low on the 30th: 54

Average monthly temperature: 61.2 degrees

Warmest June on record: 66.6 degrees set last year in 2021
Coldest June on record: 53.0 degree set in 1917

Average precipitation: 4.39″

Wettest June on record: 10.89″ set in 1874
Driest June on record: 0.11″ set in 1910

Average number of 80 degree days in June: 5

Top 5 greatest number of 80 degree days for the month of June

1) 17 days set in 1910
2) 14 days set in 2021 and 1933
3) 13 days set in 1988 and 1987
4) 12 days set in 2012 and 1976
5) 11 days set in 1921 and 1894

Note: Since 1874, there have been 6 years with zero 80 degree days at Duluth, those years are 1998, 1981, 1916, 1915, 1904, and 1877.

Astronomical Data for June

Sunrise on the 1st: 5:18 AM
Sunrise on the 30th: 5:17 AM

Sunset on the 1st: 8:55 PM
Sunset on the 30th: 9:06 PM

The first official day of summer begins at 4:13 AM on Tuesday, June 21, 2022.
Advertisements

The long range outlook for June 2022 per CFS model.

Temperature Outlook

For northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin: Below Average Temperatures. This doesn’t mean we won’t have some warmer than average days mixed in throughout the month, but the overall trend is for a cooler than average June in the Northland.

Temperature Anomaly trend for June 2022.

Last 10 model runs from the CFS model.

Blue: Below Average
Orange/Red: Above Average

Precipitation Outlook

For northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin: Below Average Precipitation for the majority of the Northland.

Precipitation Anomaly trend for June 2022.

Last 10 model runs from the CFS model.

Yellow: Below Average
Green: Above Average

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Widespread damaging wind reports and a few hail reports in the Northland on Monday, May 30, 2022

12:56 PM Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Over 200 preliminary severe weather reports across the upper Midwest on Monday with at least 5 tornado reports thus far in far western/southwestern Minnesota. Note: Additional severe weather reports will likely come in over the next day or so, and the number of tornadoes from Monday may also climb over the next few days.

Local Storm Reports from Monday, May 30, 2022
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota

9:10 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – Babbitt, MN (St. Louis County) Sherriff department reports tree down over the roadway.

9:05 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – Bennett, WI (Douglas County) Lawn furniture and a 50 pound grill blown across the yard.

8:29 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 2 WSW Holyoke, MN (Carlton County) Tree limbs broken.

8:20 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 5 NNE Cook, MN (St. Louis County) Sherriff department reports trees down over power line.

8:16 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – Cook, MN (St. Louis County) Sherriff department reports three power poles snapped near Cook and several trees down over power lines.

8:09 PM: Hail 1.00 inch (quarter size) Orr, MN (St. Louis County)

8:00 PM: Hail 1.50 inch (ping pong ball size) 1 SW Orr, MN (St. Louis County)

8:00 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 3 E Orr, MN (St. Louis County) Swath of trees about 30 yards across is down through the woods along Highway 23.

8:00 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – Linden Grove, MN (St. Louis County) Sherriff department reports multiple trees down, several over power lines.

8:00 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 6 N Cook, MN (St. Louis County) 1 tree down in yard and a few larger branches came down.

7:52 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 1 NNE Hinckley, MN (Pine County) Trees down just north of Hinckley on I-35.

7:50 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – Hinckley, MN (Pine County) Wind damage and trees down at Holiday station in Hinckley.

7:50 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – Hinckley, MN (Pine County) Numerous trees and power lines down in Hinckley.

7:45 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – Side Lake, MN (St. Louis County) Sherriff department reports several trees down and over power lines.

7:45 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – International Falls, MN (Koochiching County) Large pine tree down.

7:44 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – Beroun, MN (Pine County) Trees down.

7:42 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 5 NNE Snake Trail, MN (St. Louis County) Multiple trees down Highway 22 and 5.

7:42 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – Pine City, MN (Pine County) Trees down.

7:40 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 1 W Togo, MN (Itasca County) Sherriff department reports tree down on power line along Highway 1.

7:38 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 4 E Henriette, MN (Pine County) Several large trees down, including one on a camper and another 16-18 inches in diameter that fell on a house causing significant damage to the roof on the north side of Pokegama Lake.

7:32 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 1 WNW Littlefork, MN (Koochiching County) Trees down near US 71 and state highway 65.

7:28 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Gust 40 mph – Littlefork, MN (Koochiching County)

7:01 PM: Hail 1.00 inch (quarter size) Coleraine, MN (Itasca County)

7:00 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 6 NW Friesland, MN (Pine County) 15 inch diameter tree snapped halfway up.

6:52 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 1 W Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County) Two 8 inch pine trees down.

6:50 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 3 SW Cohassett, MN (Itasca County) 6-8 inch tree down and limbs snapped.

6:47 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – Deer River, MN (Itasca County) Garage completely collapsed with debris strewn in Deer River.

6:40 PM: Hail 0.70 inch – 5 W Pine Center, MN (Crow Wing County)

6:33 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – Remer, MN (Cass County) Chicken run, two trees, a cow shed, and a grill lost or damaged. Lots of debris blown around.

6:24 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 4 ENE Brevik, MN (Cass County) Estimated 10-12 inch diameter pine tree down.

6:20 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 2 NNW Wabedo, MN (Cass County) Winds flipped over a dock on Little Boy Lake.

6:20 PM: Hail 0.88 inch – 1 SE Inguadona, MN (Cass County)

6:17 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 1 ENE Inguadona, MN (Cass County) A few large trees down in a few spots.

6:12 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – Cross Lake, MN (Crow Wing County) 12-14 inch tree snapped.

6:12 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 4 S Cass Lake, MN (Cass County) Numerous small to to medium trees down over forest roads.

6:08 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 4 SSW Swanburg, MN (Crow Wing County) Boat lift and dock flipped on lower Whitefish Lake.

6:06 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 3 WNW Remer, MN (Cass County) Large trees snapped at the base, several over power lines.

6:02 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 4 SSE Nisswa, MN (Crow Wing County) Tree down on vehicle.

6:02 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 1 WNW Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing County) Trees down and power out.

6:02 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing County) A few trees knocked down with numerous branches down.

6:00 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – Pine River, MN (Cass County) Trees reported down in the Pine River area.

6:00 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 1 E Pequot Lakes, MN (Crow Wing County) Clusters of trees down on a power line on County Highway 11.

5:56 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Gust 46 mph – 1 SSE Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)

5:56 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 1 NE Lake Shore, MN (Cass County) Many trees down over power lines and some on buildings.

5:55 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Gust 45 mph – 4 NW Walker, MN (Cass County)

5:40 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage – 3 WNW Pillager, MN (Cass County) A few trees downed across MN 210.

5:24 PM: Hail 1.00 inch (quarter size) 4 WNW Hackensack, MN (Cass County)

6:59 AM: Hail 1.00 inch (quarter size) 1 SSW Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)

4:45 AM: Hail 0.75 inch – 1 NW Chisholm, MN (St. Louis County)

Advertisements

***POWER OUTAGE UPDATE***

Widespread power outages in northern, central and northeast Minnesota after Monday’s severe thunderstorms.

Early damage assessments indicate power restoration efforts will take several days per update from MN Power.

Lake Country Power

Counties affected

Aitkin – 285
Carlton – 30
Cass – 359
Itasca – 2498
Koochiching – 1
Lake – 2
St. Louis – 3430

Advertisements

***FLOOD UPDATE***
Source: NWS Duluth, MN

-Flood Warning in effect until 11:15 AM Monday, June 6, 2022, for a portion of north-central Minnesota including Koochiching County. Flooding caused by excessive rainfall combined with already high Rainy River levels. Expect increasing river levels through Wednesday. The Rainy River is extremely high. Rises on area tributaries may cause flooding of areas near the mouth of the Black River, Little Fork and Big Fork rivers. So far this spring the Rainy River at Manitou Rapids has reached a maximum 19 feet. Some locations that will experience flooding include areas near the mouth of the Little Fork, Big Fork and Black Rivers, including Pelland and Loman.

-Flood Warning in effect until further notice for the Mississippi River at Aitkin with minor flooding forecast.

-Flood Warning remains in effect until 4 PM Wednesday for rivers and lakes within the Rainy River Basin including Crane Lake, Namakan Lake, Kabetogama Lake and Rainy Lake. Flooding is occurring and is expected to continue. Strong lake level rises are ongoing. Flooding continues and lake levels have yet to crest. Expect high water continuing for the next several weeks.

-Lake levels on Namakan Lake and Kabetogama Lake are expected to rise an additional 2 to 5 inches through June 3. Namakan Lake could continue to rise through next week and approach the record level set in 1916 of 1122.8 feet. For Rainy Lake a rise of 11 to 13 inches through June 3, with continued rises through at least mid-June. Rainy Lake is expected to break the all-time record high level of 1112.95 feet set in 1950 sometime next week.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Update on the potential for severe thunderstorms for late this afternoon/this evening; Rainfall and Storm Reports from Monday morning

1:14 PM Monday, May 30, 2022

Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected in much of north-central Minnesota late this afternoon into this evening, with scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms expected in much of northeast into far eastern Minnesota with scattered severe thunderstorms in much of northwest Wisconsin.

In addition to the potential for some tornadoes in north-central Minnesota late today, there is also a significant risk from damaging wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph, and large hail to 2″ in diameter across much of the Northland.

Timing of all this is from late this afternoon through late this evening, or roughly from around 4 PM to 1 AM — earliest in west/southwest parts of the Northland, then spreading farther north/east through the evening.

Advertisements

Here’s a look at the Updraft Helicity tracks through late this evening.

This parameter is used to determine where we may see rotating supercell thunderstorms which increases the potential for large hail and tornadoes.

Brighter colors indicate a higher likelihood for rotating storms.

Notice how the brighter colors are mostly over central and northern Minnesota with more dull colors farther to the east, this indicates the greatest threat for rotating storms would be over central and northern Minnesota if these two computer model forecasts verify.

Simulated radar forecast through 1 AM tonight.

It might be a good idea to know the county you live in, and also what part of the county you live in, just in case your part of the county is in some sort of severe thunderstorm, tornado, flood watch or warning.

Advertisements

A very powerful mid-upper-level trough ejecting N-NE out of the Rockies as seen on water vapor imagery Monday, May 30, 2022.

Here’s the basic setup in what is behind this potential severe weather event through tonight.

At least two warm fronts and two areas of low pressure, although the main low is the one over northeast Nebraska early this afternoon, and that low will continue to lift N-NE through tonight. This is a very deep system for late May with a central pressure of the Nebraska low sitting at 990mb as of Noon today.

Lots of moisture streaming north on southerly winds ahead of this system today while dry air punches in from the SW.

Strong moisture transport (greens and pink) aimed right at the upper Midwest early this afternoon.

A negatively tilted trough ejecting NE out of the Rockies this afternoon with very strong winds aloft blasting NE out of the Central Plains.

Strong mid-level winds also in place ahead of the aforementioned trough today.

Advertisements

A Flood Watch (green) remains in effect through Tuesday morning — Some cities included in the flood watch are International Falls, Pine River, Ely, Brainerd, Hill City, Grand Rapids, Walker, Bigfork, and Hibbing.

Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible with several more rounds of thunderstorms expected through tonight.

Radar rainfall estimates from the early day storms which affected a large portion of the Northland.

A zoomed in view on the Grand Rapids and Hibbing areas which saw very heavy rainfall amounts this morning.

24-Hour Rainfall Reports ending 12 PM Monday, May 30, 2022

International Falls, MN: 1.96″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 1.96″
Grand Rapids, MN: 1.86″
Bigfork, MN: 1.46″
Littlefork, MN: 1.07″
Seagull Lake, MN: 0.94″
Hill City, MN: 0.80″
Orr, MN: 0.72″
Isabella, MN: 0.69″
Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 0.60″
Moose Lake, MN: 0.58″
Saginaw, MN: 0.55″
Longville, MN: 0.53″
Brainerd, MN: 0.53″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.47″
Pine River, MN: 0.47″
Cloquet, MN: 0.47″
Ely, MN: 0.44″
Grand Marais, The Bay of Grand Marais: 0.44″
McGregor, MN: 0.39″
Duluth Airport: 0.30″
Siren, WI: 0.20″
Minong, WI: 0.19″
Two Harbors, MN: 0.10″
Washburn, WI: 0.09″
Grand Marais Airport: 0.08″
Hayward, WI: 0.06″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.05″
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 0.02″
Superior Airport: 0.02″

Local Storm Reports from May 30, 2022

7:30 AM: Flood — Keewatin, MN (Itasca County)

7:30 AM: Hail 1.00″ (quarter size) 2 ENE Hovland, MN (Cook County)

5:26 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 5 NE Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County) A white pine tree snapped near the base of the trunk.

5:15 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 8 SE Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County) Oak tree blown over near South Long Lake.

5:05 AM: Hail 1.25″ (half dollar size) 2 NE Munger, MN (St. Louis County)

5:00 AM: Hail 1.00″ (quarter size) 4 ESE Twig, MN (St. Louis County)

4:59 AM: Hail 1.00″ (quarter size) 4 NNE Munger, MN (St. Louis County)

4:47 AM: Hail 1.00″ (quarter size) Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)

4:40 AM: Hail 1.00″ (quarter size) 5 NE Mahtowa, MN (Carlton County)

4:24 AM: Hail 1.25″ (half dollar size) 2 SW Barnum, MN (Carlton County)

4:23 AM: Hail 1.00″ (quarter size) 1 NNE Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County)

4:19 AM: Hail 1.25″ (half dollar size) Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County)

4:16 AM: Hail 1.50″ (ping pong ball size) Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County)

4:15 AM: Hail 2.00″ (hen egg size) 1 NNE Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County)

4:13 AM: Hail 0.70″. 2 S Waukenabo, MN (Aitkin County)

3:58 AM: Hail 0.70″. 2 S Backus, MN (Cass County)

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible in the Northland Monday/Monday evening

7:19 PM Sunday, May 29, 2022

A severe weather outbreak is expected on Monday in parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Significant wind gusts of 60 to 85 mph, large hail of quarter size to baseball size (1.00″ to 2.75″ diameter) and several tornadoes are possible Monday into Monday evening. A potential for intense long-track tornadoes also exists late Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

The threat for tornadoes on Monday is highest from the eastern Dakotas into much of western, central and northern Minnesota with a lower risk of tornadoes farther east including Duluth, the North Shore and Arrowhead, as well as northwest Wisconsin.

Severe Weather Outlook for Monday, May 30, 2022.

The potential for severe thunderstorms is highest in western parts of the Northland or roughly west of a line from Ely to Moose Lake to Hinckley on Monday with a lesser chance for severe thunderstorms farther to the east.

Simulated radar forecast valid from Noon Monday to 4 AM Tuesday.

Storms are expected to develop first over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota Monday afternoon. These storms are then expected to move quickly to the N/NE affecting northern, central and eastern Minnesota late Monday afternoon/early evening, and then these storms will reach the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin around mid-evening on Monday.

Note: There is a chance that will see a few scattered storms develop well ahead of the main line of storms which moves out of western Minnesota Monday afternoon.

Advertisements

Every severe weather setup is unique, and just because the computer models show a favorable setup for severe weather and tornadoes on Monday, doesn’t necessarily mean it will happen, but the conditions certainly are there for a higher end severe weather event in parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota on Monday.

Here’s a look back at a major severe weather outbreak which occurred June 17, 2010, which hit parts of North Dakota, Minnesota, western Wisconsin and Iowa.

Severe weather outlook from 6/17/2010 – Moderate Risk for severe weather similar to tomorrow (Monday’s) risk.

Tornado Probability from 6/17/2010 showing a hatched area for significant tornadoes, again similar to what we have for tomorrow (Monday).

There were over 100 tornado reports (red) associated with this outbreak from 6/17/2010.

Advertisements

SEVERE WEATHER SETUP FOR MONDAY, MAY 30, 2022

Mid and upper-level trough lifting NE out of the Rockies on Monday is unusually strong for this time of year with 500mb heights running some -2 to -3 sigma for late May.

There should be plenty of forcing/lift accompanying this powerful trough on Monday as it makes its way into the Northern Plains and upper Midwest.

*Very strong upper-level winds up to or an excess of 130 knots ejecting NE out of the Central Plains.

*Strong mid-level winds on the order of 70-90+ knots covering the upper Midwest.

*Good directional and speed shear in place on Monday with SE surface winds shifting SSE at 850mb and to the SSW at 500mb. Winds are also expected to increase with height, ranging from around 15 knots near the surface, to 30-50 knots at 850mb, and to 65-85 knots at 500mb. What this all means is that any supercell thunderstorm that develops may start to rotate (increasing the odds for a tornado) in western, central and northern Minnesota on Monday.

Advertisements

Surface features on Monday include a strong area of low-pressure lifting NE out of southern Nebraska with a warm front/stationary front draped across north-central Minnesota into far northern Wisconsin while a cold front (dryline like front) surges NE out of western and southern Minnesota.

There should be plenty of forcing in place with this system to produce showers and thunderstorms on Monday.

As I alluded to a little earlier in this post, the cold front on Monday has dryline like features as will see a punch of very dry air move quickly NE while humid air gets pumped N/NW ahead of this front. This kind of setup is more typical in the Central Plains compared to what we typically see in the upper Midwest, although it has happened in the past, but not too often.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Flood Watch issued for parts of the Northland; Rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Monday night with a threat for heavy rain (flooding) and a risk for some strong-severe storms

10:49 AM Sunday, May 29, 2022

Flood Watch in effect through Tuesday morning for parts of north-central and northeast Minnesota including the cities of Pine River, International Falls, Ely, Brainerd, Hill City, Grand Rapids, Walker, and Bigfork. Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall possible. Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected through late Monday night. Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying flood prone locations. Since water bodies are already running high, relatively low rainfall amounts may cause flooding.

On average we’re looking at a potential for 0.50″ to 2.00″ of rain in much of the Northland through Monday night with locally higher rainfall amounts for areas that see multiple rounds of thunderstorms.

Advertisements

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into tonight in much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with the highest threat covering areas from around Brainerd on south.

Primary severe weather threats through tonight include damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and large hail of quarter size to ping pong ball size (1.00″-1.50″ diameter).

Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) orange
Slight Risk (level 2/5) yellow
Marginal Risk (level 1/5) dark green

Simulated radar forecast through 12 PM Monday showing the multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms which are expected to affect much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through the end of this loop which is Noon on Monday.

A warm frontal or nearly stationary frontal boundary extending from central North Dakota to central Minnesota to central Wisconsin late this morning will be one source of lift for shower and thunderstorm development through Monday morning. This boundary won’t be moving a whole lot north or south over the next 24 hours.

Thanks for reading!

Tim