Mild and less windy Friday; East wind returns Saturday (Cooler near Lake Superior) Heat Wave Sunday-Monday, and possibly again late next week/next weekend; First half of June 2022 climate stats; Rainfall reports from Wednesday

Timothy Burr

4 years ago

5:44 PM Thursday, June 16, 2022

Last time it was 90 degrees or warmer in the Northland

International Falls: August 20, 2021
Hibbing: August 19, 2021
Duluth: July 5, 2021

Note: Brainerd and Ashland have already recorded their first 90 degree or warmer temperature this year on June 14, 2022.

Note: Last year Duluth had 4 days with a high of at least 90 degrees, the normal number of 90 degrees days in a year at Duluth is 2 days (1991-2020 climate period).

RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHLAND ON MONDAY
Here are the record high temperatures for June 20

Ashland: 98 set in 1909
International Falls: 97 set in 1910
Brainerd: 93 set in 1995
Hibbing: 92 set in 1995
Duluth: 88 set in 1995

Peak Wind Gusts from Thursday, June 16, 2022

Brainerd: 48 mph
Ashland: 47 mph
Duluth: 46 mph
Hibbing: 43 mph
International Falls: 42 mph

Pleasant temperatures continue Friday with less wind compared to Thursday.
Heat wave Sunday through Tuesday, and possibly again late next week.
Lake wind, cooler by the lake Saturday and Sunday.
A very muggy air mass with dew points of 65 to 75 degrees Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.

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Temperatures Saturday will remain on the comfortable side in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with highs in the 70s to lower 80s, but it will be much cooler near Lake Superior and in Duluth due to an easterly wind.

The heat will be building however to our west on Saturday with highs in the 90s to around 100 degrees across the eastern Dakotas into west-central Minnesota.

Heat builds east on Sunday with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin (warmest temps in western parts of the area), but a lake wind could continue on Sunday which would lead to cooler temperatures near Lake Superior and in Duluth (highs mid 50s to mid 70s, coolest temps closest to the lake).

Highs of 95 to around 103 are expected on Sunday over the eastern Dakotas into west-central Minnesota.

All of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin are forecast to have temperatures in the 90s on Monday with any lake cooling confined to the North Shore (northeast of Duluth)

100+ degree temperatures are possible Monday across western, central and southern Minnesota.

To go along with the hot temperatures will be a very juicy/muggy air mass which moves into the Northland Sunday and then sticks around through Tuesday. We’re looking at dew point temperatures in the mid 60s to low-mid 70s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin late this weekend into early next week.

Note: The atmosphere will become very unstable across the Northland late Saturday through early next week with daily CAPE values >2000 J/kg, but the atmosphere also looks very capped meaning that temperatures aloft will be very warm so chances that we get any thunderstorms look pretty low at the moment, but certainly can’t rule out an isolated storm Saturday through Sunday morning as a warm front and strong warm air advection builds NE into the area, but this will probably be more of an ACCAS type event (mid-level cloudiness and virga).

Not only are we looking at a heat wave for the upper Midwest this weekend into early next week, but there are signs showing up that we may see another heat wave develop sometime late next week/next weekend per long range model forecasts.

Here’s the 500mb height anomaly forecast valid June 17 through June 25, 2022.

Riding (red)
Troughs (blue)

Note how we see one strong ridge setup over the upper Midwest this weekend, then this ridge flattens a bit toward the middle of next week, but after that we may see another ridge redevelop later next week.

Bottom line is that this looks like a pretty warm pattern for the Northland with occasional lake cooling through late next week.

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