5:32 PM Tuesday, August 23, 2022
- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue tonight through early Wednesday morning mostly over northern Minnesota (north of Highway 2) Severe weather is not expected tonight, but brief heavy downpours can be expected with these storms tonight.
- The threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread farther south into east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Wednesday and Wednesday night.
- Dry weather returns Thursday and Friday.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms return this weekend, but a complete washout looks unlikely Saturday or Sunday.
- Cooler temperatures return on Wednesday especially near Lake Superior where 60s are likely, while temperatures for inland locations range from around 70 to 80 degrees with the warmest temps extending from around Brainerd east to Hayward.
Note: We may stay mostly dry in Duluth on Wednesday as showers and thunderstorms in scattered fashion target areas a little farther to the west and south of the Twin Ports, but with a frontal boundary nearby I can’t guarantee that we won’t see a few showers pass through the Twin Ports Wednesday afternoon, but rain chances are greater a little farther to the west and south.
HRRR model radar forecast through 7 AM Thursday.
This map usually updates daily but for some unknown reason it hasn’t updated since Sunday.
Soil moisture is running >90% across parts of northern Minnesota outlined in white, while a pocket of dryness continues in parts of northwest Wisconsin, South Shore area, west toward the Twin Ports with soil moisture running about 10% or less.
There’s been some fog impacting lakeshore communities in the Minnesota Arrowhead today with most of this fog staying offshore or hugging the immediate shoreline in Cook County today.
Here’s a visible satellite loop from today, Tuesday, August 23, 2022.
Note the nearly stationary area of fog over the northwest arm of Lake Superior west of Isle Royale today.
We may see the fog over northwest Lake Superior become more widespread while expanding southwest impacting a larger portion of the North Shore and South Shore of Lake Superior including the Twin Ports area Wednesday morning with visibility <1 mile in the darker colored area on the animation below.
Fog is expected to burn off by Wednesday afternoon.
HRRR model visibility forecast through 1 PM Wednesday.
It’s another warm late August day in the Northland with temperatures mostly in the low to mid 80s, although temperatures have cooled off due to more clouds and some rain this afternoon in far northern Minnesota.
Here in Duluth, we had another day with a temperature of at least 80 today which makes it two days in a row at or above 80 (Aug. 22-23) The last time we put together back-to-back days with an 80 degree or warmer temperature was on July 30-31. It’ll be much cooler in Duluth on Wednesday due to a gusty northeasterly wind.
Second day in a row where we’ve seen this temperature pattern where it’s cooler than normal (by as much as -10 to -20 degrees) across the southern Plains, while temperatures are running warmer than normal (by about +5 to +10 degrees) across the northern Plains, upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
Here’s a look at actual temperatures from Tuesday afternoon, August 23, 2022.
Two pockets of heat in the US outlined in yellow, while pockets of rain cooled air covered the southern US with temperatures only in the 70s this afternoon.
Weekend rain chances
A warm front, cold front combo will pass through the upper Midwest this weekend. This system may have a bit more instability and stronger winds aloft and better wind shear to work with compared to the last few systems, so there is a possibility that will see a few stronger thunderstorms in parts of the Northland sometime Saturday and or Sunday.
Thanks for reading!
Tim