5:25 PM Wednesday, September 14, 2022
The next few days will feature some rain at times as the weather pattern becomes more active in the Northland.
Rain chances begin early Thursday morning, and they will continue through Sunday, but this rain will come through in waves, with some breaks in the rain likely through the weekend.
A few thunderstorms are also possible Thursday and Friday due to some weak elevated CAPE over the area, and any thunderstorm will have the potential to produce higher rainfall rates, but widespread thunderstorm activity is not expected, and severe weather is also not expected through Thursday night.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid from Midnight tonight to 7 AM Friday.
The HREF model highlights the heavy rain potential in northern Minnesota per its model run from Wednesday morning with a potential for up to 5″ of rain through Friday morning.
The probability-matched mean rainfall is highest across northern Minnesota (black outlined area) with lesser amounts of rain expected in northwest Wisconsin through Friday morning.
-Scattered flash floods are possible Thursday into early Friday across northern Minnesota, most vulnerable are urban areas, roads, small streams and washes. Isolated significant flash floods possible. Note: The potential for flash flooding may increase if we see thunderstorms setup over the same location for a few hours
-Isolated flash floods, localized and primarily affecting places that can experience rapid runoff with heavy rainfall is possible Thursday into early Friday in the green area.
The 500mb pattern for September 16-21, 2022, features a ridge in the middle with troughs to the east and west. This pattern configuration puts the upper Midwest in a southwest flow aloft which leads to a more unsettled/active weather pattern which may continue into early next week.
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through September 21, 2022, with an area of well above normal temps +10 degrees or more centered over the Midwest (yellow outlined area)
Thanks for reading!
Tim