5:30 PM Thursday, October 20, 2022
A deep low-pressure system is forecast to track from northeast Colorado to northwest Minnesota between Sunday morning and Monday afternoon.
- Rain chances increase in the Northland Sunday evening with rain at times into Monday as a strong fall storm lifts NE across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest.
- Scattered thunderstorms with a potential for heavy downpours and hail are possible in the Northland Sunday night with enough elevated CAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates over the Northland to produce some thunderstorms.
- Warming trend continues the next few days. Highs on Friday will range from the mid 50s to low 60s in the Northland which is roughly +5 to +10 degrees warmer than normal in late October. Note: High of 56 at the Duluth Airport today (October 20th) Warmest temperature since October 11th (high of 77)
- Highs in the 60s are likely this weekend with a few 70s possible on Sunday, but an east wind will keep it cooler near Lake Superior Saturday and Sunday.
| Precipitation Anomalies for October 2022 (thru the 20th) Duluth, MN: -1.56″ below normal Brainerd, MN: -1.50″ below normal Ashland, WI: -1.44″ below normal International Falls, MN: -1.01″ below normal Hibbing, MN: -0.97″ below normal |
MSLP anomalies with this weekend’s system are forecast to range from around -3.9 sigma Saturday evening to around -2.5 sigma Monday afternoon so this will be a pretty strong system!
We’re still looking at a chance for widespread rainfall totals of 0.50″ to 1″+ in all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.
Probability for >3″ snowfall from early Sunday to early Monday remains highest well to the west of the Northland including for parts of the Northern Rockies and western Dakotas.
The pattern is breaking down!
Strong ridge which had been over the western U.S. is going away as we’re seeing lower 500mb heights today compared to where they’ve been the last few days.
The new pattern developing over the next week or so will consist of troughing over the western U.S. with upper-level ridging over the eastern U.S.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Thursday, October 20, 2022 (loop time ends 5 PM CT)
Drought Update for October 20, 2022
Minnesota
4% of the state is in Extreme Drought, unchanged from last week.
15% of the state is in Severe Drought, up from 12% last week.
44% of the state is in Moderate Drought, up from 36% last week.
78% of the state is Abnormally Dry, down from 79% last week.
Note: 21% of Minnesota is drought free as of October 18, 2022 — This is down from 71% of the state which was drought free on July 19, 2022.
Wisconsin
3% of the state is in Severe Drought, unchanged from last week.
24% of the state is in Moderate Drought, up from 19% last week.
64% of the state is Abnormally Dry, up from 57% last week.
Note: 35% of Wisconsin is drought free as of October 18, 2022 — This is down from 65% of the state which was drought free on July 19, 2022.
0.35% of the Midwest is in Exceptional Drought, unchanged from last week.
3% of the Midwest is in Extreme Drought, unchanged from last week.
15% of the Midwest is in Severe Drought, up from 11% last week.
43% of the Midwest is in Moderate Drought, up from 31% last week.
78% of the Midwest is Abnormally Dry, up from 74% last week.
Note: 21% of the Midwest is drought free as of October 18, 2022 — This is down from 56% of the Midwest which was drought free on July 19, 2022.
An additional 3 to 6 inches of precipitation is needed to end the drought in northwest Wisconsin, while a trace to 3 inches of additional precipitation is needed to end the drought in east central Minnesota.
90-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation — July 22, 2022 – October 19, 2022.
Reds: Below normal precipitation
Green, blue and purple: Above normal precipitation
Thanks for reading!
Tim