5:55 PM Wednesday, October 26, 2022
An upper-level disturbance lifting ENE out of the western High Plains is bringing some rain to parts of Nebraska and far southern South Dakota this afternoon.
Some of this rain will eventually affect portions of western and southern Minnesota late tonight into Thursday morning, while here in the Northland we’re not looking at a whole lot of rain out of this system, with only a few showers or sprinkles possible during the day Thursday mainly over parts of east-central Minnesota.
Radar loop ending 4:45 PM Wednesday.
HRRR model radar forecast through 7 PM Thursday.
Rainfall amounts will be greatest over eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota tonight into Thursday with totals ranging from a trace to a quarter of an inch, while here in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin only trace amounts are expected for locations that get a few rain drops on Thursday.
A warming trend will continue in the Northland over the next few days with high temperatures in the 50s on Thursday, and in the 50s to lower 60s for Friday through next Tuesday.
LONG RANGE FORECAST
A more active pattern appears to be setting up as we get into mid to late next week. Whether we see just one system, or more than one system eject out of the Rockies is unclear at the moment, as is the strength of any such system coming out of the Rockies, but just from a pattern recognition standpoint I’d see chances are pretty good will see at least one system impacting the Northland sometime later next week bringing some rain or snow to the area. Stay tuned!
It doesn’t look like will be seeing any persistent cold weather hitting the Northland at least through the first week or so of November, but there will be plenty of cold air building across western and central Canada into the Northern Rockies later next week.
NWS Blended Model approach for snowfall totals for late next week currently shows the greatest amounts of 3″+ setting up over northern Minnesota and over the Arrowhead with lower snow totals farther south.
This forecast will likely change several times over the next 5-7 days with snow totals increasing or decreasing while also shifting farther north or south.
15-Day EPS model snowfall forecast for Duluth through November 10th, 2022.
Purple and pink colors represent a more significant snowfall event 6″+.
Currently there’s only about 5 out of 50 members forecasting a more significant snow event for Duluth, otherwise the majority of the EPS members are forecasting a light snowfall event for Duluth over the next 2 weeks with the snow threat not showing up until late next week at the earliest.
Thanks for reading!
Tim