5:58 PM Saturday, April 1, 2023
A powerful winter/spring storm could hit the Northland Tuesday into Wednesday.
Storm track continues to be uncertain, and this will determine where the greatest snow accumulations will setup in the Northland, and also on what areas could see the snow change to freezing rain, sleet, or rain.
Computer models are in very good agreement on this system impacting the Northland Tuesday into Wednesday, but actual amounts of snow and ice vary from model to model.
A farther west storm track would likely cause warmer air to build farther north into at least eastern Minnesota, Twin Ports and northwest Wisconsin with a greater potential for snow to change to freezing rain, sleet or rain, and a farther west storm track could also lead to some parts of the Northland being dry slotted on Wednesday with mostly light precipitation.
On the other hand, a farther east storm track would likely keep colder air in place resulting in mainly snow for Duluth while any changeover from snow to freezing rain, sleet or rain being confined to parts of northwest Wisconsin.
Right now, it looks like northern Minnesota including the North Shore and Arrowhead stand the best chance for getting 10 inches or more of snow for Tuesday into Wednesday, this area has a lesser chance for seeing the snow mix with or change to sleet or freezing rain the way it looks now.
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET POTENTIAL
There is a potential for the snow to mix with and change over to freezing rain, sleet and even rain in parts of the Northland Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Currently this changeover from snow to ice/rain is highest in east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin with a lower chance for northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead.
Some accumulation of ice from freezing rain is possible Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning over mainly southern parts of the Northland, with a chance for a significant amount of icing (amounts around or greater than 0.25″)
Here are a few ice accumulation forecasts from the computer models.
Euro model
NBM — NWS Blend of Models
Euro Ensemble — EPS model
This model shows a low end to high end amount which for Duluth ranges from 0.00″ to 0.43″ respectively.
TIMING
Snow is forecast to develop from southwest to northeast across the Northland during the day Tuesday with snow or a mixture of precipitation types continuing Tuesday night. This model forecast only goes thru 1 AM Wednesday, with additional precipitation expected beyond this time.
For Duluth — Snow is forecast to begin between 8 AM and 11 AM on Tuesday (timing could shift earlier or later in future updates)
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Mix (orange and pink)
The potential for very strong east to northeast winds near Lake Superior including in the Twin Ports continues for Tuesday into Wednesday.
Winds increase out of the northeast Monday night through Tuesday morning with wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph. Winds increase even further and should peak in intensity from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, this is when we could see wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph near Lake Superior including in the Twin Ports. Winds start to decrease Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Note — These strong winds alone could lead to some downed trees and power lines resulting in some power outages Tuesday into Wednesday.
Euro model wind gust forecast valid 7 PM Monday to 7 PM Wednesday.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
The 2023 thunderstorm season may get underway either Tuesday or Tuesday night in the Northland as elevated CAPE (instability) lifts N/NE in waves. It looks like we could build up enough elevated CAPE for isolated thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, but any thunderstorm will probably be accompanied by snow, sleet or freezing rain, or a combination of all three things.
Euro model CAPE forecast valid 1 PM Tuesday to 1 PM Wednesday. Higher values of instability in blues, yellows and oranges on the animation below.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
Another outbreak of severe thunderstorms including a risk of tornadoes for Tuesday in the yellow and orange areas on the map below. A lot of the same areas which had severe weather and tornadoes on Friday could be hit once again this coming Tuesday.
Tim