5:29 PM Tuesday, August 1, 2023
Cold front will move southeast out of northwest Minnesota and across the Northland Wednesday. It’ll be warm, humid and somewhat unstable out ahead of this front on Wednesday with temperatures in the 80s along with dew points in the 60s to around 70. The amount of instability (CAPE) could reach upwards of around 1000-2500 J/kg on Wednesday but could be lower if there is some rain Wednesday morning which could keep temperatures cooler Wednesday afternoon which would help keep the CAPE on the lower side Wednesday afternoon.
And the computer models don’t offer much help for forecasters tonight or Wednesday as they all show something different.
Here are two model forecasts through 7 PM Wednesday.
Nam 3km model
HrrrV4 model shows a lot more convection in our area Wednesday compared to the Nam 3km model which is mainly dry Wednesday.
***SEVERE POTENTIAL***
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over northeast and east central Minnesota tonight.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday in all of northwest Wisconsin and in much of northeast and east central Minnesota.
Note: The primary severe weather threats for tonight and Wednesday are from damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and large hail to quarter size (1″ diameter)
Good Ol northwest flow leading to a few clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the northern half of Minnesota today.
Goes-16 sandwich satellite loop from Tuesday, August 1, 2023 (loop time ends 5:26 PM CT)
Some of these storms today have been on the rambunctious side across northern Minnesota but these storms have been moving south to southeast meaning that they have missed northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin today as they slide south through central Minnesota instead.
Radar loop ending 5:30 PM Tuesday, August 1, 2023.
Western portions of the Northland have seen quite a bit of rain today with reports of 1 to nearly 3 inches of rain per radar estimates.
Rainfall reports from Tuesday, August 1, 2023
Source: MesoWest
Longville, MN: 2.60″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.81″
Brainerd, MN: 0.73″
Hill City, MN: 0.72″
Aitkin, MN: 0.67″
Pine River, MN: 0.63″
Northome, MN: 0.46″
McGregor, MN: 0.30″
Bigfork, MN: 0.17″
Hinckley, MN: 0.16″
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.12″
Moose Lake, MN: 0.12″
Littlefork, MN: 0.09″
Siren, WI: 0.04″
Esko, MN: 0.03″
Cloquet, MN: 0.02″
Deer River, MN: 0.02″
International Falls, MN: 0.02″
I guess we’re tuning up for the upcoming winter this weekend as I’m seeing a high level of uncertainty in the computer models pertaining to the track of a low-pressure system this weekend.
Note — One thing I’ve noticed when it comes to model trends over the last 24 hours is that the system for this weekend has slowed down quite a bit, so this could lead to a mostly dry Saturday now if these slower trends continue over the next few days.
Canadian model keeps the low well to the south of the Northland which means little to no rain this weekend and early next week in our area.
European model is way different as this model has the low much farther north in western Minnesota which leads to a rainy Sunday in the Northland, with showers lingering into Monday on the backside of this system.
Here’s the NWS Blend of Models total rainfall through Monday (7 AM)
Thanks for reading!
Tim