6:26 PM Monday, April 15, 2024
A potent low-pressure system over northeast Colorado will move northeastward, reaching northern Iowa and southern Minnesota by early Wednesday morning, and approaching the Green Bay area by Wednesday afternoon. This storm track would typically bring significant snowfall to much of the Northland; however, a lack of cold air with this system means snow is unlikely. Instead, a widespread rain event is anticipated, starting in the western and southern regions during the day Tuesday, then progressing northward to the Iron Range, Arrowhead, North Shore, and northwest Wisconsin by late Tuesday afternoon or evening. The rain is expected to continue into Wednesday, tapering off from west to east by Wednesday night.
Note: Rain is anticipated to start in Duluth late Tuesday afternoon to early evening, approximately between 5 PM and 7 PM. While a few light showers may occur later tonight, the bulk of the rainfall is expected to arrive late Tuesday afternoon.
In the Northland, the highest rainfall totals are expected in northwest Wisconsin, east central Minnesota, and along the North Shore of Lake Superior, with these regions potentially receiving from 0.75 inches to over 1 inch of rain by Wednesday evening.
Northern Minnesota is anticipated to receive lower rainfall amounts from this system, with expected totals ranging between approximately 0.20 inches and 0.50 inches from Tuesday night into Wednesday.
HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Tuesday to 1 PM Wednesday.
Rain has begun in areas of eastern North Dakota and extended into northwest and central Minnesota this afternoon. However, as the rain advances east-northeast into a drier air mass, it is expected to dissipate tonight. Despite this, there remains a possibility for a few showers in parts of the Northland tonight and into early Tuesday morning, although any accumulation is likely to be minimal.
The pressure gradient is expected to intensify between a high-pressure area centered near Hudson Bay, Canada, and a low-pressure system ascending northeast from Colorado. This disparity in pressure will lead to the development of strong easterly winds in the Northland on Tuesday, with gusty conditions likely persisting into Wednesday.
Near Lake Superior, the strongest winds are anticipated, with gusts ranging from 45 to almost 60 mph expected from Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning.
In other areas of the Northland, wind gusts may range from 20 to 40 mph.
HRRR model wind gust forecast valid 7 AM Tuesday to 1 PM Wednesday.
A Gale Warning is in effect for western Lake Superior starting from mid-morning Tuesday until Wednesday afternoon.
Expect northeast winds to reach gusts of up to 40 knots, accompanied by waves ranging from 7 to 13 feet.
Large-scale forcing is expected to move into the Northland later on Tuesday as an upper-level low, or trough, advances northeastward from the Rockies.
Here’s a look at this upcoming system via Goes-16 water vapor imagery from Monday. Loop time ends 5:31 PM CT.
Most areas in the Northland are experiencing slightly below-average precipitation this month; however, the forecasted rainfall should help reduce or eliminate these shortfalls. An exception is Brainerd, which has received a quarter inch more than the usual precipitation levels for this month.
Precipitation Statistics for April 2024 (up to 7 AM on the 15th)
Brainerd, MN
Total: 0.90″
Normal: 0.65″
Departure: +0.25″ above normal
Duluth, MN
Total: 0.60″
Normal: 1.08″
Departure: -0.48″ below normal
Hibbing, MN
Total: 0.44″
Normal: 0.65″
Departure: -0.21″ below normal
Ashland, WI
Total: 0.23″
Normal: 0.88″
Departure: -0.65″ below normal
International Falls, MN
Total: 0.14″
Normal to date: 0.70″
Departure from normal: -0.56″ below normal
The percentage of normal precipitation for April 2024, up to 7 AM on the 15th.
Brainerd: 138% of normal
Hibbing: 68% of normal
Duluth: 55% of normal
Ashland: 26% of normal
International Falls: 20% of normal
Total precipitation for Spring 2024 up to 7 AM on April 15th.
Duluth
Total: 2.49″
Normal: 2.54″
Departure: -0.05″ below normal
International Falls
Total: 1.30″
Normal: 1.72″
Departure: -0.42″ below normal
Percentage of Normal Precipitation for Spring 2024 up to 7 AM on April 15th.
Duluth: 98% of normal
International Falls: 75% of normal
Severe thunderstorms are expected tonight across the central Plains, extending from southern South Dakota and Nebraska to northern Texas.
Significant hail, destructive winds, and the possibility of tornadoes are expected with tonight’s storms.
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday throughout parts of the central states, ranging from the Corn Belt to the Ozark Plateau. The highest risk for severe hail and tornadoes is anticipated in the regions of southern and eastern Iowa, northern Missouri, and west-central Illinois.
Note: While the possibility of thunder cannot be dismissed in parts of the Northland from Tuesday afternoon into the night, widespread thunderstorms, including severe ones, are not anticipated in our area with this system.
Significant tornadoes may occur on Tuesday, particularly in the designated hatched area shown on the map.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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