6:24 PM Monday, May 6, 2024
Another rain system is expected to pass through the Northland on Tuesday.
A potent low-pressure system near Rapid City, SD, this afternoon is expected to drift across the western Dakotas until Wednesday morning, then redevelop further southeast over Iowa and Missouri throughout Wednesday.
The system is expected to deliver widespread rain across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday, with the potential for a few thunderstorms, primarily in parts of eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Light rain or drizzle may continue into Wednesday, followed by drier conditions on Thursday. However, scattered showers are expected on Friday due to a passing cold front.
Expect gusty and cool northeast winds near Lake Superior through Thursday, with occasional gusts reaching 25 to 35 mph. Temperatures will likely hover in the upper 30s to 40s near Lake Superior on Tuesday and Wednesday, accompanied by the possibility of patchy fog.
The Northland is forecasted to receive widespread rainfall ranging from a quarter to half an inch on Tuesday, with potential for higher accumulations up to one inch in parts of northeast and east-central Minnesota, extending into northwest Wisconsin.
Duluth area: Rain is forecasted to start Tuesday morning between 6 AM and 9 AM, continuing throughout the day and into the evening.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 7 AM Wednesday.
As mentioned earlier, there’s a small possibility of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms from Tuesday into Tuesday evening across the southern regions of northwest Wisconsin. The primary concerns with these storms, if they occur, are hail and gusty winds.
Another potent mid-latitude cyclone is moving northward across the western Dakotas today, marking a continuation of the recent weeks’ heightened activity.
Goes-16 satellite loop ending 5:25 PM CT, Monday, May 6, 2024.
A significant severe weather outbreak is anticipated tonight across areas of the central and southern Plains.
Significant severe weather, including very large hail, damaging winds, and the likelihood of tornadoes, is anticipated. Multiple intense, long-tracked tornadoes (EF3 or higher) are expected to occur from central and northern Oklahoma to south-central Kansas.
A Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) tornado watch is in effect until 11 PM tonight, covering southern Kansas, western and central Oklahoma, as well as western North Texas.
Tornado watches and a severe thunderstorm watch will remain in effect through this evening for regions extending northward, encompassing north central Kansas, a large portion of central and eastern Nebraska, as well as areas within South Dakota, North Dakota, and Montana.
The Significant Tornado Parameter has reached values exceeding 5 across a broad area of central and southern Kansas to northern Oklahoma by late this afternoon. Generally, an STP value of 1 or greater is indicative of favorable conditions for tornado development, provided other necessary elements are in place.
Today, a classic Plains dryline is in place, contributing to the outbreak of severe weather.
Ahead of the dryline, dew points range from the upper 60s to lower 70s with winds blowing from the south to southeast. However, behind the dryline, dew points drop to single digits, teens, and 20s, accompanied by winds from the southwest.
Numerous supercell thunderstorms have developed late this afternoon across areas of the central and southern Plains.
Goes-16 sandwich satellite loop from Monday, May 6, 2024. Loop time ends 4:56 PM CT.
Radar loop ending around 5 PM CT Monday.
Warnings overlayed
Red – Tornado Warning
Yellow – Severe Thunderstorm Warning
The potential for severe thunderstorms remains high for at least two more days, with Tuesday and Wednesday both facing enhanced risk levels.
Tuesday’s outlook
Wednesday’s outlook
This computer model’s forecast indicates the potential areas for rotating thunderstorms and possible tornadoes through late Wednesday night. Note: Brighter colors on the map correspond to a higher probability of rotating supercell thunderstorms.
The Northland experienced mild temperatures today, with readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s. However, a robust northeast wind held temperatures down to the 40s and lower 50s within approximately 15 miles of Lake Superior.
Today’s highs and departure from normal for May 6th
International Falls: 73/+13 degrees above normal
Brainerd: 71/+7 degrees above normal
Hibbing: 70/+10 degrees above normal
Duluth: 68/+9 degrees above normal
Ashland: 68/+7 degrees above normal
Thanks for reading!
Tim