6:46 PM Saturday, June 15, 2024
Rain is expected tonight in northwest Wisconsin and east central to northeast Minnesota. The rainfall is anticipated to taper off late tonight or by early to mid-morning on Sunday.
The weather on Sunday afternoon and evening hinges on the strength of the forcing associated with a warm front and cold front. If these forces are sufficient to break through the developing cap (a warm layer of air aloft), it could result in showers and thunderstorms later on Sunday. Should the cap remain intact, it’s likely that our area will not experience further rainfall until Monday when the cold front that passes on Sunday returns northward as a warm front.
The potential for heavy rainfall persists over parts of the Northland from Monday into early Tuesday, as successive waves of showers and thunderstorms may linger over the same areas for extended periods. Elevated moisture levels will surge northward into our region on Monday, accompanied by a significant temperature gradient across the area. The convergence of these elements may heighten the risk of flash flooding in certain areas during this time.
Radar loop ends 6:30 PM CT Saturday, June 15, 2024.
HRRR model simulated radar forecast through 10 AM Sunday.
A moderate risk for flash flooding, indicated by the red area on the map, encompasses a large portion of northeast and east central Minnesota, extending into far northwest of Wisconsin from Monday to early Tuesday morning.
Here’s what a moderate risk and slight risk for flash flooding means.
Here are a few different computer model forecasts for rainfall totals through 1 AM Wednesday.
There’s a good chance that some parts of the Northland will get between 2 to 4 inches of rain between tonight and Tuesday evening, with a lot of that falling in the Monday-Tuesday morning time frame.
A heat dome is starting to form today over the southeastern U.S., while a strong trough envelops the Pacific Northwest.
The ridge over the southeast U.S., which reached a 500mb height of 590 decameters today, is expected to intensify, with 500mb heights nearing 600 decameters by the middle of the week.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Sunday, June 15, 2024, loop time ends 6:20 PM CT.
Significantly warmer temperatures are anticipated for Sunday afternoon, with readings ranging from the mid-70s to the 80s across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, and the 90s expected further south.
Temperatures are likely to remain cooler near Lake Superior, with expected highs in the 50s and 60s on Sunday, should the northeast wind persist.
An increasingly humid air mass is expected for Sunday, with dew points rising into the 60s and lower 70s across much of the Northland.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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