Weather Blog for Duluth and the Northland

6:28 PM Friday, June 21, 2024

There are some notable differences in the weather models for the Northland on Saturday.

The weather setup involves a nearly stationary frontal boundary along the Minnesota-Iowa border extending into south-central Wisconsin. This front is not expected to move much farther north through Saturday afternoon. However, by Saturday night, it will be pushed farther south and east as a cold front due to an area of low pressure tracking east-northeast along the front.

A region of rain and thunderstorms is expected to persist near and north of the stationary front through Saturday, impacting areas from south central Minnesota to central Wisconsin, which is consistent with the rainfall pattern since Thursday.

The uncertainty for Saturday revolves around the potential intensification of a disturbance moving east-northeast from the northern Plains. Some computer models predict this scenario, resulting in widespread rain across the Northland throughout Saturday, diminishing by evening. Conversely, other models suggest the disturbance will remain weak as it crosses our region, leading to minimal rainfall except for possible heavier showers in parts of northwest Wisconsin.

Note: Strong northeast winds are anticipated in the vicinity of Lake Superior and the Twin Ports area on Saturday, with wind gusts ranging from 15 to 30 mph.

NAM model 500mb forecast valid from 7 AM to 7 PM Saturday.

The forecast suggests Duluth will remain mostly dry tonight and into early Saturday morning, with rain possible starting around mid-morning Saturday and continuing into the late afternoon before ceasing by Saturday evening.

Here’s the NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM to 10 PM Saturday.

According to the HREF model forecast, maximum rainfall totals could reach 1 to 2 inches or more by Saturday evening across much of northwest Wisconsin and extending westward to the far eastern regions of Minnesota, including Duluth and Two Harbors, with lower amounts expected across far northern Minnesota.

The European model indicates that the significant rainfall will remain further south, affecting a large portion of northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota, while northern Minnesota, including Duluth, is expected to receive only minor amounts of rain.

It is worth noting that the Euro model’s performance with today’s forecast was subpar, leaving uncertainty about its accuracy for the next 24 hours.

The HRRR model predicts some rainfall moving northward into Duluth on Saturday, with expected amounts near 0.40 inches.

The NAM 3km model predicts a wet Saturday for Duluth, with rainfall exceeding an inch.

Lastly, here is the rainfall forecast from the NWS Blend of Models, valid until 7 PM Saturday.

Generally, the higher rain totals are in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with lesser amounts of rain across northern Minnesota.

Duluth’s rain total is at 0.80 inches through 7 PM Saturday per NWS Blend of Models forecast.

Flood Warnings remain in effect until 5 PM Sunday in parts of northeast Minnesota.

• Flooding caused by heavy rainfall that occurred Tuesday is ongoing.
• Expect many areas of slow moving or standing water.
• Numerous structures are flooded, and flood mitigation efforts continue within the city of Cook.
• Numerous roads remain closed across northern and western St. Louis County due to flooding.
• An upstream dam release from the Island Lake Reservoir is expected to increase river levels below Island Lake.
• Flooding of the Cloquet river downstream of Island Lake including Hunter and Bowman lakes in imminent or occurring due to an upstream dam release.
• The Island Lake Reservoir is not in danger of failing.

Red – Tornado Warning
Yellow – Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Green – Flash Flood Warning

Radar loop ends 5:44 PM Friday, June 21, 2024.

https://videopress.com/v/ih57olR1?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true

12-Hour Radar rainfall estimates through 5 PM today.

5-Day Significant River Flood Outlook valid through 7 AM June 26, 2024.

Significant river flooding is occurring in areas marked red, is likely in regions colored orange, and possible in the yellow zones on the map below.

The upper-level ridge, also known as a heat dome, persisted today across the southeastern and eastern US, while troughing extended over the western US and into west-central Canada.

Multiple severe thunderstorm watches have been issued for the evening..

Thanks for reading!

Tim