1:06 PM Thursday, July 4, 2024
The coming days’ weather will feature several mid to upper-level troughs and lows.
This pattern presents a challenge for weather forecasters as the rains are often sporadic, resulting in one area remaining dry while another, just a few miles away, may experience a heavy downpour.
The initial system will persist in moving eastward across the upper Midwest through Friday. It will then be succeeded by another trough that will extend southward and eastward into the upper Midwest over the weekend, remaining into the early part of next week.
Intermittent rain showers are expected in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin nearly every day until next Tuesday. The rainfall will not be constant, as there will be numerous dry intervals. However, anticipate some rain intermittently over the next four days.
There is a possibility of scattered thunderstorms developing over the Northland in the coming days due to some instability from cooler temperatures aloft. However, widespread thunderstorm activity is not anticipated, and severe thunderstorms are not expected either. Note: The developing storms are likely to be of the pulse variety the next few days, characterized by a sudden emergence followed by a quick collapse. At their peak, these storms may produce hail approximately a quarter to a half-inch in diameter, wind gusts up to 35 mph, occasional lightning, and short periods of intense rainfall.
Duluth area: Despite the forecast predicting rain for the past several days, the only recorded rainfall occurred early Tuesday morning during a brief period when rain swept through the city. It’s likely this pattern will continue into early next week, with rain anticipated nearly every day, yet most days may remain dry except for a few hours of possible rainfall.
Radar loop from Thursday, July 4, 2024, loop time ends 12:46 PM CT.
HRRR model radar forecast through 5 AM Friday.
Rain is expected to be more prevalent in central and southern Minnesota, extending into central and southern Wisconsin, compared to the Northland, through Friday morning. The black outlined area on the map below could receive 1 to 1.50 inches or more of rainfall through Friday morning.
The image depicts the maximum high-end rainfall amounts according to the HREF model ensemble.
Here are additional computer model rainfall predictions up until 7 AM Friday, July 5, 2024.
500mb analysis from early Thursday afternoon.
Take a look at the initial system impacting areas of the northern Plains and upper Midwest today through water vapor imagery.
Goes-16 water vapor loop ending 12:20 PM Thursday, July 4, 2024.
The radar forecast for Friday afternoon at 3 PM indicates isolated to scattered rain coverage in the Northland area.
Thanks for reading!
Tim