6:36 PM Thursday, March 20, 2025
An interesting system is arriving this weekend, mainly from late Saturday night to Sunday night.
Impacts for the Northland include
-Accumulating Snow (possibly significant amounts >4″ for some)
-A wintry mix especially in northwest Wisconsin, Twin Ports and east central Minnesota.
-Snow that accumulates Saturday night and Sunday will likely be pretty wet/dense with the marginal temperatures in place.
The issue with the system on Sunday will be the temperatures down near the surface which look to range from the low to mid 30s which at this time of year will probably be warm enough to make things pretty sloppy during the day Sunday, I think this will be especially true closer to Lake Superior and below the hill in Duluth, as well as in northwest Wisconsin and east central Minnesota. Areas farther north including the higher terrain in Duluth and along the North Shore will probably have some pretty difficult travel through the day Sunday.
Note: Temperatures aloft look cold enough through the duration of the event for frozen precipitation, but again those surface temperatures look to be an issue during the day Sunday.
Euro model temperature forecast valid 7 AM to 10 PM Sunday.
Still seeing some disagreement in the computer models regarding the track of the low this weekend.
One might assume that if the low moves further south, it would maintain enough cold air near the surface, increasing the chance of snow. However, at this time of year, this may not happen unless there is already enough cold air in place before the system arrives.
Currently, it looks like the precipitation holds off in Duluth until after midnight Saturday night. So we’re looking at the onset time for the precipitation during early Sunday morning.
European model simulated radar forecast valid 7 PM Saturday to 1 AM Monday.
Snow – blue
Rain – green
Mix – pink/orange
Here’s an early look at what I think we may see for snowfall totals in the Northland on Sunday. This forecast will likely change over the next few days, so be sure to check back for updates.
- 4 to 6 inches or more of snow is possible especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior where an easterly wind could cause some lake/terrain enhanced snow.
- 1 to 2 inches in far southern parts of the area where we may see more of a wintry mix or rain at times.
- 2 to 4 inches of snow elsewhere including for Duluth.
Again, the totals shown on the map could increase or decrease the next few days.
We have another visit, albeit a brief one, from Arctic air Friday night, which will send 850mb temperatures down to around -12 to -20°C in the Northland, with actual temperatures Saturday morning ranging from around 5 below zero to 10 above zero from north to south.
Eyes on late next week/next weekend
Obviously, this is a long way out, and things will likely change from what the computer models are showing today for late next week/next weekend, but the signal for some more wintry weather is showing up on some of the computer models around March 28-30.
The setup right now for late next week and next weekend looks a little interesting and could feature quite a temperature gradient setting up across the upper Midwest, while we could see a couple of waves of low pressure track east out of the Rockies. Stay tuned.
Thanks for reading!
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