A low-pressure system, measuring about 997mb or 29.44 inches, was positioned over central Lake Superior this afternoon. It’s expected to move slowly south and east over the next 24 hours.
Chilly temperatures, breezy winds, and occasional light rain will persist through tonight and into Wednesday across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as the system slowly moves away.
Temperatures aloft are cooling enough that we might see some snow mixing with the rain tonight, but surface temperatures remain in the low to mid-40s this afternoon, which is still too warm for snow.
Temperatures in parts of the Northland may dip to around 34 to 37 degrees between Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. If that happens, there could be a bit of snow, but it seems likely to stay limited to the higher elevations in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and possibly near the South Shore of Lake Superior around Hurley and Gile in northwest Wisconsin.
Note: I don’t think we’ll see any snow in Duluth through early Thursday morning.
As for those winds, well they will remain gusty tonight and Wednesday (15 to 30 mph).
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 7 PM Wednesday.
By 7 PM Wednesday, parts of far northern Wisconsin near Lake Superior could see additional rain totals of half an inch to an inch or more, with the highest chances east of Superior and Ashland.
In northeast Minnesota, additional rain amounts of a tenth to a quarter of an inch are expected through 7 PM Wednesday, with potential for higher totals due to lake-enhanced rain coming off Rainy Lake southeast of International Falls.
Rainfall in Duluth and Superior is expected to total less than 0.05 inches.
A strong trough continues to appear in computer models for early next week, though there are differences in the projected path of a potential low-pressure system emerging from the Rockies or Plains. These discrepancies in the models are expected to persist in the coming days.
If a system impacts northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin next week, temperatures seem warm enough for most precipitation to fall as rain. Gusty winds might also develop. Stay tuned for updates.
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