A strong low-pressure system will move northeast from Montana on Wednesday, reaching central Manitoba by Thursday evening. A warm front tied to this system will push northeast from southern Minnesota Wednesday night into Thursday, while a cold front moves east from western Minnesota Thursday afternoon. South winds ahead of the system will pull moisture northward, with dew points expected to climb into the 50s on Thursday for areas away from Lake Superior.
A mix of lift from different fronts and an upper-level trough, paired with a more humid air mass and some instability, will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the Northland from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. There’s also a chance for a few showers or storms to pop up near the warm front early Thursday, mainly along the Ontario border based on current forecasts.
Precipitation stats for Duluth, Minnesota
Note: We’re a bit below average in precipitation right now, but not by much.
Month to date: 1.58″
Departure: -0.11″
Since March 1st: 2.90″
Departure: -0.25″
Since January 1st: 4.94″
Departure: -0.17″
There are still some timing differences for Thursday’s rain, with the Euro model showing it arriving sooner compared to the slower solutions from other models.
The images for 7 PM Thursday show the Euro model predicting rain from northeast Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin, while other models still place the rain over central Minnesota at that time.
Rainfall amounts for Thursday night are now expected to be higher than yesterday’s forecast, with the NWS Blend of Models predicting half an inch to over an inch of rain in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from late Thursday afternoon to Friday morning. We’ll see if these trends keep up over the next 24 hours.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could develop across much of the Northland late Thursday afternoon into the evening, with a marginal risk (dark green area on map) rated at level 1 out of 5. The main threats from any stronger storms include hail and gusty winds.
Rain could make a return to the Northland early next week, mainly from late Sunday night into Monday, as a strong system moves northeast from the southern Plains.
