A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 9 PM tonight for northern Minnesota and eastern North Dakota. The main threats include scattered damaging wind gusts between 60 and 75 mph, large hail measuring 1 to 2 inches in diameter (about the size of a quarter to a hen’s egg), and the chance of one or two tornadoes.
It’s a pretty straightforward setup tonight with a cold front stretching from far northwest Minnesota through eastern North Dakota into central South Dakota. This front will likely stall somewhere between southern and northeast Minnesota or far western Wisconsin by Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning, before eventually being pushed farther south and east.
This afternoon, there’s plenty of moisture, lift, and instability near the front, with the highest CAPE over west-central Minnesota and lower values as you move east into northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. This likely means the storms in northwest Minnesota will follow the path of strongest CAPE, pushing them more south than east into central Minnesota later this evening.
Showers and thunderstorms in northwest and far northern Minnesota this afternoon will continue drifting southeast into the evening. It’s still unclear how far east the storms will travel before starting to weaken.
For Duluth: Showers and thunderstorms are possible later this evening, between about 10 PM and 1 AM, but no severe weather is expected.
Radar loop ends 6:20 PM Monday, July 6, 2026.
Colder, taller cloud tops are shown in yellow, orange, and red in the loop below.
Goes-19 infrared satellite loop ending 6:11 PM CT Monday, July 6, 2026.
This afternoon, dew points reached the upper 60s to 70s in western Minnesota and eastern North Dakota, while the Northland stayed mostly in the 60s. It definitely felt a bit humid, especially the farther you were from Lake Superior.
Western to northern Minnesota could get between half an inch and an inch of rain tonight, while northeast and eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin may see anywhere from just a trace to a quarter inch.
…Rainfall Potential Tuesday night-Wednesday…
Another round of showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for heavy rain, is expected from Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, computer models still disagree on where the heaviest rain will fall, with some placing it farther north and others farther south.
Where the heaviest rain sets up, there’s potential for 1-3 inches of total rainfall from Tuesday night through Wednesday.
The HREF model below shows a more southern track, keeping the heaviest rain south of Duluth on Tuesday night.
…Temperatures…
Highs in the Northland today were mostly in the 80s, about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than usual for early July. Closer to Lake Superior, it was cooler, with temperatures holding in the 60s to around 70.
On Tuesday, temperatures in our area will reach the 70s and 80s.
…Warm weather possible this weekend/early next week…
Heading into this weekend and early next week, forecasts suggest an upper ridge will strengthen over the Rockies and Plains, with 500mb heights possibly topping 594 decameters. How far north this ridge extends will determine just how warm it gets in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but highs are likely to reach at least the 80s from Saturday into early next week, with 90s possible if the ridge sets up far enough north.
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