The upcoming 500mb ridge is expected to peak at about +2.5 to +3.0 sigma across the northern Plains and upper Midwest early next week, according to the GFS model. It’s quite an impressive ridge for this far north.
High temperatures are expected to range from about 87 to 95 degrees in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Sunday and Monday, with some spots possibly hitting 96 to 100 degrees, especially on Monday. Low temperatures from Saturday night through Monday night should range from the mid-60s to mid-70s across the Northland.
In the Twin Ports area, it looks like winds will stay more offshore than onshore during the upcoming heat wave, so the hot temperatures should reach the lakeshore areas on Sunday and Monday.
Note: This month, Duluth has already seen six days with temperatures reaching 80 degrees or higher. On average, July brings about 11 of these warm days, with the record of 25 set back in 2012.
On average, Duluth sees just one day in July with temperatures hitting at least 90 degrees. The record is nine such days, set in 1936, followed by six days in 1988. More recently, in 2013, Duluth experienced three days in July that reached or exceeded 90 degrees.
The heat risk outlook shows major (red) and moderate (orange) hazards across northeast Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin, and other parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest for Sunday, July 12, and Monday, July 13.
Forecast for Sunday, July 12
Forecast for Monday, July 13
…Fire Info…
In the past few days, several fires have broken out in far northeast Minnesota, affecting the northern part of St. Louis County, north of a line from Orr to Ely.
There’s not much rain in the forecast for the areas where these fires are burning, and with a warm pattern lingering for a while, it’ll be interesting to see how this impacts fire conditions.
Over the past 30 days, far northern Minnesota has only seen about 1 to 2 inches of rain, with higher totals recorded farther south.
Over the past 30 days, far northern Minnesota, including the Arrowhead region, has received only about 25-50% of its usual rainfall, while areas marked in green and blue have experienced wetter-than-normal conditions.
…Friday rain chances…
A weak boundary will move into northwest Minnesota on Friday but won’t make it any farther east. With some instability and moisture ahead of the front, there could be a few isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from Friday into Friday evening. Widespread rain isn’t expected, and while an isolated stronger storm with hail and gusty winds is possible, the overall risk for severe weather in our area remains very low.
Here’s a look at the potential rainfall totals through late Friday evening, based on the NWS Blend of Models forecast.
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