Today, July 19th, was the 16th day this month in Duluth, Minnesota, with a high of 80 degrees or warmer. On average, July sees about 11 such days, with the record being 25 days set in 2012.
Today in the Northland, temperatures mostly hovered in the mid to upper 80s, with a few spots hitting the low 90s. Similar warmth is expected on Monday before a short-lived cooldown moves in by midweek.
Looks like a line of scattered showers and thunderstorms could move east across the Northland early Monday morning. These storms might bring brief heavy downpours, gusty winds of 30–50 mph, and possibly localized gusts up to 60 mph. Hail ranging from 0.5 to 1 inch in diameter is also possible during this time.
For Duluth: Showers and thunderstorms might pass through early Monday morning, sometime between 4 and 6 AM.
HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid 1 to 8 AM Monday.
Last week was dominated by a record-breaking 500mb ridge over the northern Plains and upper Midwest, but this week the focus shifts to a trough digging into the Great Lakes, peaking at about -1.5 sigma Tuesday morning. This trough will be progressive, moving in and out quickly, and by next weekend, much of the Northland could see another round of 90+ degree temperatures.
Dew points were mostly in the 60s across the region today, making it feel a bit humid. Expect a muggy night and Monday morning before drier air moves in from northern Minnesota behind a cold front Monday afternoon.
…Monday afternoon-evening severe weather potential…
The highest risk for severe thunderstorms will be across much of Wisconsin—covering southern, central, northern, and eastern parts of the state—as well as much of upper Michigan on Monday afternoon and evening, when conditions come together for potentially dangerous storms.
The map below shows the 1km Energy Helicity Index (EHI) with values ranging from 3 to over 7. Since values of just 1-2 can indicate possible severe storms, the high readings forecast for Monday afternoon raise concerns about a potentially significant severe weather event. This could bring hail measuring 1 to 2.75 inches in diameter, possibly up to baseball size, along with damaging winds of 60-85 mph and even a few tornadoes.
Note: The highest risk for severe storms Monday afternoon into the evening is expected to develop mainly east of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
