Note: On Thursday, August 6th, Duluth marked its 24th day this summer with temperatures hitting 80 degrees or higher. Typically, the city averages around 23 such days between June and August. Remarkably, July 2026 alone saw 21 days reach 80 degrees or more, nearly matching the usual total for an entire summer.
A cold front will sweep east across the Northland tonight through midafternoon Friday, bringing some lift and convergence. Winds will shift from the southwest ahead of the front to the northwest after it moves through.
Ahead of the front tonight and into Friday, enough instability and moisture will build, accompanied by strong winds aloft and some wind shear.
A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop tonight, mainly over northern Minnesota. On Friday, the best chances for showers and storms will be in northwest Wisconsin, but if the front moves east more slowly, those higher chances could extend farther west into northeast and eastern Minnesota, including the Duluth area, by late Friday morning into early Friday afternoon.
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly on Friday in northwest Wisconsin and possibly into far eastern Minnesota. Hail to quarter size (1″ diameter) and winds to 60 mph are the main severe weather threats.
…Storm Timing…
The HRRR model shows the front moving east more slowly than other forecasts suggest. With this slower pace, scattered thunderstorms could pop up Friday morning through early afternoon across northeast and eastern Minnesota before heading into Wisconsin.
According to the NAM Nest model, the front is expected to move east more quickly, sending most storms into northwest Wisconsin by Friday afternoon, with little to no rain farther west, including Duluth.
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Rainfall totals through 7 PM Friday aren’t expected to be very impressive across most of the Northland, with amounts generally under 0.10 inches. However, thunderstorms could bring locally higher totals, and a corridor in far northern Wisconsin may see a half inch or more by Friday afternoon.
It’ll be a bit humid on Friday in eastern Minnesota, Duluth, and northwest Wisconsin, with dew points climbing into the 60s. However, drier air will quickly move in from the west after a cold front passes through Friday afternoon.
…Wildfire Smoke…
An eastward-moving cold front will bring another round of wildfire smoke to the Northland tonight and Friday. Like previous smoke events, most of the smoke will likely stay higher in the atmosphere, creating hazy skies but little to no ground-level smoke through Friday.
As the cold front moves east, it will take the smoke with it, bringing better air quality to the Northland on Saturday.
