Showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Northland late Friday afternoon into Friday night as a cold front moves east from the northern Plains. Gusty south winds of 15-30 mph ahead of the front will bring increased moisture, with dew points rising into the upper 50s to low and mid 60s across the region. The approaching front, combined with lift from a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet of 30-45 knots, will help trigger scattered storms.
The timing of rainfall in the Twin Ports differs among computer models. The European model indicates an earlier onset, with rain chances increasing between 5:00 and 7:00 PM on Friday, whereas other models project a later arrival, generally after 9:00 or 10:00 PM. Rain is expected to taper off by early Saturday morning as the system moves eastward.
Euro model forecast (7 PM Friday)
NAM-Nest model forecast (7 PM Friday)
HRRR model forecast (7 PM Friday)
As for the severe thunderstorm risk on Friday, it is highest across north central Minnesota, likely confined to a relatively narrow corridor. The peak threat is expected from late Friday afternoon into the evening, with main hazards including large hail up to 1.75 inches in diameter (about golf ball size) and damaging wind gusts reaching 60 mph.
Although thunderstorms are expected farther east on Friday night, the atmospheric conditions for severe weather appear less conducive than in regions to the west.
Duluth could see up to half an inch or more of rain by late Friday night, with most other parts of the Northland receiving between 0.1 and 0.5 inches. Areas affected by thunderstorms may experience rainfall totals of an inch or more.
The next system I’ve been tracking over the past few days is still forecasted to bring rain to the Northland early next week. It’s moving slightly slower than expected, so rather than Sunday, most of the precipitation will likely arrive on Monday as the system advances east-northeast from the northern Rockies and western High Plains.
There may be sufficient cold air in the higher elevations to bring occasional snowfall into early next week across parts of western Canada and the northern Rockies, though the Northland won’t be seeing any snow, yet.
A picture-perfect September day unfolded across the region, with highs reaching the 70s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, and climbing into the 80s farther west. Normal highs in the Northland on September 10 typically range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, making today’s temperatures about 5 to nearly 10 degrees above average.
Today, September 10th marked the eighth day so far this month with temperatures reaching 70°F or higher in Duluth, just one day short of the average nine days typically seen in September.
The day brought abundant sunshine to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with only occasional scattered clouds. Meanwhile, to the west, thicker clouds are moving eastward ahead of the next system expected on Friday.
Goes-19 visible satellite loop from Thursday, September 10, 2026, showing imagery from 2:05 PM to 5:00 PM CT.
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