Warm and Mostly Sunny Friday; scattered rains Saturday; breezy and cooler Sunday

*Looks like July 2020 will go into the record books as a top 10 warmest July on record at Duluth, Minnesota (most likely somewhere in the 6th-8th warmest July on record)

*20 days at or above 80 degrees in Duluth this month. Should end up with 21 days at or above 80 degrees for July 2020 which will rank this month in 4th place for most number of 80 degree days for the month of July. The record is 25 days at or above 80 degrees which was set in 2012.

*Another beautiful summer day on the way across the Northland for Friday with sunshine and some clouds, light winds and highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s! A few showers or thunderstorms are possible by Friday evening in western areas, generally west of a line from International Falls to Longville.

18z HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid from 12 PM Friday to Midnight Friday night shows the potential for a few showers and storms spreading ESE out of northwest Minnesota Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Note: Best chance for some rain in Duluth will be on Saturday as scattered showers will be possible throughout the day.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Advertisements

This week’s updated drought monitor shows some improvements in both Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Severe drought is gone, but parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin remain in Moderate Drought (D1) or Abnormally Dry conditions indicated by the orange and yellow colors respectively on the maps below.

8% of Minnesota is in Moderate Drought, down from 17% last week.

28% of Minnesota is Abnormally Dry, down from 32% last week.

Source: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

0.21% of Wisconsin is in Moderate Drought, down from 0.60% last week.

1% of Wisconsin is Abnormally Dry, down from 3% last week.

A major heat wave continues across the western U.S. today as strong upper level ridging extends north into southwest Canada.

Check out these temperatures from Thursday afternoon across the southwest U.S.; widespread 110 to around 120 degree temperatures today! Note: Phoenix, Arizona had a low of 91 degrees Thursday morning, July 30, 2020.

Yes, it’s summer, and it is usually very hot in the southwest U.S., but even this is pretty extreme for this area with temps running about 10 degrees warmer than normal for late July in the Phoenix area.

Note: So when was the last time Duluth, Minnesota had a temperature of at least 100 degrees? Here’s your answer! 84 years and counting to find the last time when the temperature reached at least 100 degrees in Duluth, Minnesota. July 13th, 1936 was the last time Duluth had a 100 degree or warmer temperature! My math sucks, and this is just a rough estimate, but in terms of number of days since the last 100 degree temp in Duluth, it would be something like 30,000+ days! Been a while! Now there may have been several occasions since 1936 where the feels like temp or heat index has reached 100 degrees or warmer in Duluth, but I’m talking an actual temp, not factoring in the heat index or feels like temperature.

Advertisements

Looking at a more amplified weather pattern late this weekend into the middle of next week (~August 2 thru 5) as a cooler northerly flow covers the Great Lakes and upper Midwest, looks like will have highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees across the Northland for the early to middle part of next week the way it looks now.

Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Dry and mild thru Friday; few showers Saturday; cooler weather next week

More nice summer weather is on the way across the Northland for Thursday and Friday with highs in the 70s to lower 80s on Thursday, and from the upper 70s to middle 80s Friday.

A cold front moves SE across the area Friday night into Saturday bringing a few showers with it. Isolated thunderstorms are possible as well with some marginal instability developing along and ahead of a cold front.

The greatest chance for a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm Friday afternoon or Friday night looks to be mainly west of a line from Crane Lake to Longville with dry weather expected anywhere south/east of that line for Friday and Friday night.

Note: Best chance for a few showers in Duluth will be on Saturday the way it looks now.

18z NAM 3km simulated radar forecast valid from Noon Friday to Midnight Friday night.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Advertisements

The summer of 2020 has been a warm one so far in Duluth, Minnesota with 79% of days since June 1st having an above average temperature while just 21% of days since June 1st having a below average temperature.

Blue represents days where the average temperature was below normal in Duluth, while red represents days where the average temperature was above normal in Duluth, Minnesota from June 1st, 2020 thru July 28th, 2020.

Source: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/

Here’s a look at daily precipitation totals for Duluth, Minnesota from January 1st, 2020 thru July 28th, 2020.

Source: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/

Advertisements

Long range computer models are in good agreement showing cooler risks for next week across the Midwest and Great Lakes. For us in the Northland, this could mean daytime highs in the 60s and 70s next week instead of around 80 degrees.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Beautiful summer weather continues!

The weather can’t get much nicer than this, and the rest of this week looks just as nice as it was today (Monday) This could very well be the nicest week of summer 2020 when you factor in the combination of no rain (for most) low humidity, some sun and the mild temperatures, enjoy!

Note: Our next chance for rain in Duluth won’t be until Saturday, and those chances don’t look very good at the moment, so it appears we’re going right back into a dry pattern which has been a common theme here in 2020! Over 5.00″ below normal precipitation in Duluth since January 1st, and this number will be climbing this week.

Today marks the 19th day so far this month with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota. July 2020 is currently tied for 5th place with July 2011, July 1989 and July 1916 for the most number of 80 degree days for the month of July.

Note: The record for most number of 80 degree or warmer days in Duluth for July is 25 days set in 2012. We won’t be breaking this record this July as it looks like we may only get 1 or 2 more 80 degree days in Duluth for the rest of this month, so it looks like July 2020 will rank 4th or stay at 5th place for most number of 80 degree days.

Advertisements

Rainfall Reports from Monday, July 27, 2020

Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu/

Two Harbors, MN: 0.13″

Grand Marais Airport: 0.12″

Cook, MN: 0.08″

Silver Bay, MN: 0.07″

Ely, MN: 0.02″

Scattered rains today roughly north/east of a line from Bigfork to Two Harbors to Ashland to Hurley, anywhere south of that line it was dry today.

Looks like we could see a few showers pop-up again Tuesday afternoon over far northeast Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin, but instability looks lower on Tuesday so this should limit the thunder potential.

It looks like will stay dry again in Duluth and Superior on Tuesday.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with northwest winds 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid from 7 PM Monday to 7 PM Tuesday.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Advertisements

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Monday, July 27, 2020 showing a spin across Ontario Canada, that is an upper level low which will move slowly ESE over the next few days.

Loop time ~9 AM to ~5 PM.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Warm air near the surface combined with some colder air aloft made the atmosphere a bit unstable across the Northland today, this coupled with an upper level low over Ontario province led to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon mainly over northeast Minnesota. Brief downpours, lightning and gusty winds have been the main hazards with the storms today, but there was one report of small hail 0.25″ diameter near Grand Marais at 5:15 PM today.

Scattered showers and storms will continue to move southeast across northeast Minnesota, western Lake Superior and extreme northern Wisconsin into early this evening before ending overnight. Note: Should stay dry tonight in Duluth and Superior.

Radar loop 12 PM to 5:35 PM, Monday, July 27, 2020.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Pleasant weather across the Northland this week

Looks like the final week of July will be a dry one across most of the Northland, but there could be a few isolated showers that pop-up during the afternoon and evening on Monday and Tuesday, but these shouldn’t amount to much where they occur, and the majority of these should remain north of Duluth and Superior.

Note: 5.25″ of rain has fallen so far this month in Duluth, and July 2020 will finish above normal in the rainfall department even if we don’t get anymore rain this month, but our precip deficit since January 1st will be climbing this week, or unless we get some rain, by the way we’re still nearly -5.00″ below normal for precipitation in Duluth since January 1st.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 7.26.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid from 7 AM Monday to 7 PM Monday.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

A mid to upper level low will move slowly ESE out of Ontario province from Monday to Wednesday, this will put the Northland in a NW flow aloft which will lead to a much more comfortable air mass across the Northland over the next few days. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the 70s to around 80 degrees, right about normal for late July. It’ll be a touch breezy at times on Monday as northwest winds gust to around 20-25 mph.

Advertisements

Local Storm Reports from Saturday through Sunday morning, July 25-26, 2020.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

10:20 AM 7/26: Radisson, WI (Sawyer County) Flash Flood – Water was over portions of County Road H near the village of Radisson.

10:00 AM 7/26: 6 miles SW Butternut, WI (Price County) Heavy Rain 5.81″. Observer reported several streams over roads

8:12 AM 7/26: Couderay, WI (Sawyer County) Flash Flood – Water was over one of the lanes of Highway 70/27 near the village of Couderay

8:00 AM 7/26: 1 mile SSW Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) Heavy Rain 1.50″.

5:30 AM 7/26: 1 mile SE Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) Heavy Rain 2.25″.

4:15 AM 7/25: 6 miles SSE Wilkinson, MN (Cass County) Many large trees down near Walker, MN.

Note: Some parts of Duluth had torrential downpours with those scattered storms Saturday evening, but the higher rainfall totals were quite localized as Hermantown, Proctor and Superior only saw between a tenth to quarter inch of rain Saturday evening per radar estimates.

Advertisements

Locations southeast of Hayward saw some heavy rain Sunday morning which led to some flooding. Radar estimates show anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of rain fell from Radisson to Loretta extending into far southern Ashland county around the Butternut area.

Torrential downpours and flash flooding last night into this morning across portions of south-central Minnesota. Those yellow colors on the image below indicate rainfall totals of 8 inches or more!

The highest rainfall totals last night into this morning were along the Minnesota River from Morton to Mankato and extending southeast to the Janesville and Waseca areas.

…Record Warm Low Temperatures set across the Northland on July 25, 2020…

Brainerd, Minnesota

New record warm low for 7/25: 77 degrees

Old record warm low for 7/25: 72 degrees set in 2007

Ashland, Wisconsin

New record warm low for 7/25: 73 degrees

Old record warm low for 7/25: 66 degrees set in 2012

Duluth, Minnesota

New record warm low for 7/25: 72 degrees

Old record warm low for 7/25: 69 degrees set in 1886

Note: International Falls, Minnesota tied their record warm low temp of 68 degrees on Saturday, July 25, 2020, this ties the record which was set on July 25, 1916.

Advertisements

A less humid air mass is on the move! It is taking a little while to get here, but a much less humid air mass will arrive in Duluth and Superior by this evening, and it looks like most of the week ahead will be quite comfortable in terms of the dew point which should mostly be in the 50s over the next few days.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Very Muggy tonight; turning less humid Sunday afternoon

Dew point of 78 degrees at the Superior Airport at 5 PM today, this is about as humid as it’ll ever get around here. 75 degree dew point at Duluth Sky Harbor Airport, and a 72 degree dew point at the Duluth Airport late this Saturday afternoon, July 25, 2020.

It’s going to be another very muggy night across the Northland with dew points in the 70s this evening, and from the mid 60s to low 70s after Midnight, but relief from the tropical dew points is coming by Sunday afternoon as dew points fall from the 60s and 70s Sunday morning to the 40s and 50s by late Sunday afternoon. Note: This drier/less humid air mass will move from NW to SE across the Northland on Sunday, reaching northern Minnesota before Noon Sunday, and the Twin Ports around 2-4 PM Sunday.

One would think with all the heat and humidity in place that we’d be seeing widespread convection across the Northland today, but this just hasn’t been the case with this particular setup, things just didn’t line up for that to happen.

Note: Based on radar trends over the last hour or so it appears that most of the rain this evening will remain south and southeast of Duluth and Superior, but I can’t guarantee that we won’t see a pop-up shower or storm develop and hit the city due to all the humid, warm air over the area this afternoon, but chances that happens are on the low side.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop at times tonight, mainly over northwest Wisconsin, extending back into east-central Minnesota. Storms over those areas will be capable of producing lightning and torrential downpours with a lesser risk for gusty winds and hail tonight.

Northern Minnesota should stay mostly dry tonight, although an isolated shower or storm can’t be ruled out.

Very warm tonight with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s!

Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible Sunday mainly from northeast and east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, otherwise dry with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs Sunday in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

18z HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM Sunday.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Advertisements

The best forcing with today’s system is passing well NW of our area across Saskatchewan into Manitoba where scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are occurring today, but those storms are lifting toward the NE.

Visible satellite loop from Saturday, July 25, 2020, end time ~4:10 PM CT.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

The actual cold front is still back over the Dakotas this afternoon but is moving to the east, this front should be moving through northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Sunday morning through mid-afternoon Sunday.

As long as this front is off to our west there will be a chance for a few showers or thunderstorms due to the warm, muggy and unstable air mass out ahead of this front, but winds aloft aren’t very strong, and the amount of wind shear is on the lower side of things, so I’m not expecting much in the way of strong or severe storms in the Northland tonight or Sunday, but an isolated stronger storm is possible tonight mainly over northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota.

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Advertisements

Rainfall reports from Saturday, July 25, 2020

Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu/

Note: Totals listed below through 4 PM Saturday, July 25, 2020

Cass Lake, MN: 1.08″

Bigfork, MN: 0.74″

Cook, MN: 0.61″

Glidden, WI: 0.61″

Walker, MN: 0.38″

Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 0.36″

Hayward, WI: 0.36″

Orr, MN: 0.30″

Silver Bay, MN: 0.30″

Littlefork, MN: 0.25″

Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.25″

Hill City, MN: 0.18″

International Falls, MN: 0.16″

Grand Marais, MN: 0.16″

Clam Lake, WI: 0.15″

Saginaw, MN: 0.08″

Ely, MN: 0.07″

Moose Lake, MN: 0.07″

Aitkin, MN: 0.06″

Superior Airport: 0.06″

Brainerd, MN: 0.04″

McGregor, MN: 0.03″

Duluth Airport: 0.03″

Today’s rainfall pattern is quite similar to the ones we’ve seen quite a bit this summer where the most significant rains fall in two areas, one across north-central Minnesota, and the other over portions of northwest Wisconsin, while in between not a whole heck of a lot of rain.

Thanks for reading!

Tim