6:34 PM Saturday, April 9, 2022
A very active weather pattern returns starting Sunday night.
A quick moving but potent low-pressure system is forecast to lift NE out of the Central Plains on Sunday. This low moves into southern Minnesota Sunday evening, and moves to near Thunder Bay Canada by around daybreak on Monday.
This system will bring some rain or a rain/snow mix to north-central Minnesota during the day Sunday with precipitation switching over to mostly wet snow in that area Sunday night.
Farther south/east including for east-central and northeast Minnesota, Twin Ports, North Shore and Arrowhead the chances for precipitation will be highest Sunday night through Monday morning with rain mixing with and changing over to wet snow early Monday morning, especially west and north of Duluth.
A few rain showers are possible across northwest Wisconsin Sunday night, but the greatest precipitation totals with Sunday’s system look to be farther NW across north-central and northeast Minnesota.
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast valid for Sunday night through early Monday morning.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM Monday for parts of northeast Minnesota (purple area on map)
Snow and slush covered roads are possible late Sunday night into early Monday morning in the advisory area.
STORM TRACK FORECAST WITH STORM NUMBER ONE
For Duluth — Chances for precipitation will be greatest Sunday evening through early Monday morning with mainly rain expected, although a brief period of a mix of rain and snow or all snow is possible early Monday morning. Total snowfall accumulations less than an inch.
Simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM Monday.
Rain (green)
Snow (blue)
Gusty winds are possible especially near Lake Superior Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening with east winds of 25 to 40 mph.
Another period of gusty winds this time from the northwest or west are likely on Monday with wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph across the Northland.
Wind gust forecast valid 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM Monday.
Looks like will have a big-time temperature contrast setting up Sunday afternoon with temperatures in mid 30s to low 40s across northern Minnesota to the 60s in southern Minnesota to the 80s as far north as west-central Iowa.
Note: Duluth recorded its 2nd 50 degree or warmer day of 2022 today with a high of 50 degrees! Sunday isn’t looking quite as warm though in the Twin Ports due to an easterly wind with highs Sunday ranging from 37 to 44 degrees.
A POWERFUL SPRING STORM STILL EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK
This storm for next week will have it all!
- Severe thunderstorms including a risk for tornadoes across the Central and Southern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday
- Heavy snow with possible blizzard conditions Tuesday-Thursday across the Northern Plains where snow totals of 12-24″+ are possible.
- Widespread potentially damaging wind gusts across the Plains and upper Midwest.
- Significant amounts of precipitation.
Model trends over the next day or two are going to be interesting as there continues to be some uncertainty regarding the track of this storm with the European model definitely trending toward more snow than rain in much of the Northland mid to late next week, but other computer models aren’t as aggressive with the snow potential in our area (yet).
1 to 2 inches of precipitation is forecast for all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through next Friday.
Precipitation totals will be running well above average for this time of year across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest (green and blue colors on map)
Wind gust forecast valid 7 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Friday.
Very strong NE winds with gusts of 50 mph or stronger are possible near Lake Superior from early Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.
Risks for severe thunderstorms and some tornadoes Tuesday and Wednesday in the yellow and orange shaded areas on the images below.
A risk for severe thunderstorms reaches into southeast Minnesota and southern Wisconsin Wednesday.
Thanks for reading!
Tim