6:18 PM Tuesday, July 12, 2022
Cooler temperatures will be moving into the Northland over the next few days, this will be especially true near Lake Superior where high temperatures on Wednesday will only be in the 50s and 60s, while farther inland expect high temperatures in the 70s on Wednesday. The reason for these cooler temperatures is due to an easterly wind which will likely stick around into Thursday.
Areas of dense fog are also likely over western Lake Superior tonight and Wednesday morning, and some of that fog will impact the North Shore and South Shore areas tonight through Wednesday morning.
Note: The temperature at Duluth Sky Harbor Airport dropped 29 degrees between 3:55 PM and 5:55 PM today (81 to 52) as the wind shifted to the east. And this is why I think buying an AC is pointless if you live close enough to Lake Superior, it’s a waste of money for the few times that you may have to use it throughout the summer.
Temperature anomaly forecast valid Wednesday through Saturday, July 13-16, 2022.
Blue and green: Below normal temperatures
Orange and red: Above normal temperatures
The numbers on the animation represent the departure from normal whether it be below normal or above normal.
Coolest days (compared to normal) in the Northland will be on Wednesday, and continuing into Thursday near Lake Superior while highs farther inland get back closer to normal to slightly above normal on Thursday, and after that we’re looking at near normal to slightly warmer than normal temperatures in the Northland for Friday and Saturday.
Normal highs at this time of the year are in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
It’s going to be a chilly Thursday morning in the Northland as temperatures drop into the 40s in much of the area, with a few 30s even possible in the typical cold spots in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Note: Record lows for July 14th at the 5 major climate locations in the Northland (Ashland, Brainerd, Duluth, Hibbing, and International Falls) range from 35 to 38 degrees so these records will probably be safe.
Persistent NW flow aloft has been the norm so far this month, and this has helped to keep the extreme heat away from the Northland, but I also think the much cooler than normal waters of the Great Lakes (especially Lake Superior) may also be playing at least a little role on why the upper level ridge (heat dome) hasn’t been able to penetrate far enough north/northeast to bring a more prolonged stretch of hot weather to the upper Midwest and for us in the Northland. I also think the computer models are underestimating these cooler water temps over the Great Lakes which is why the computer models (in the long range) have been too aggressive in shoving more extreme heat well NE into our area only to back away from it as the time frame gets closer.
So, we may be seeing 2 factors in play here on why the more extreme/prolonged heat hasn’t been able to shift far enough north to impact the Northland so far this summer, one factor being the NW flow aloft, the other factor (but probably to a lesser extent) the much cooler than normal water temps of the Great Lakes, especially Lake Superior.
Showers and thunderstorms will slowly diminish from north to south this evening, but until then expect brief downpours and occasional lightning with the storms, along with a chance for gusty winds to 40 mph and small hail (pea size), but the overall threat for severe thunderstorms is very low through this evening.
Radar loop ending 5:45 PM Tuesday, July 12, 2022.
Radar rainfall estimates show some pockets of much higher rainfall totals (1-2″+) in our area with today’s thunderstorms, but overall rainfall totals have generally been in the 0.05″ to 0.50″ range.
One last disturbance continues to dig S/SE into the Northland this afternoon which has triggered another round of scattered downpours and thunderstorms in the Northland this afternoon.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Tuesday, July 12, 2022.
And here’s a visible satellite loop showing the convection moving SE across the Northland this afternoon.
Thanks for reading!
Tim