12:51 PM Wednesday, July 19, 2023
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon into this evening with the greatest chance for severe weather in the yellow area where there is a Slight Risk or a level 2/5 for severe thunderstorms later today.
***HAIL THREAT***
Large hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter is the primary severe weather threat through this evening with the hatched area representing a greater than 10% probability for significant hail events which could exceed 2″ in diameter (hen egg size or larger)
***TORNADO THREAT***
There is also a chance for an isolated tornado or two across much of the Northland with the highest chances in the brown area on the map below.
***DAMAGING WIND THREAT***
Damaging winds to 60 mph are also possible in the Northland with the highest chances in the yellow area on the map below.
Note – It looks will see chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms increase across the Northland by late this afternoon or between about 2 PM and 5 PM with activity lingering into this evening.
Radar forecasts through Midnight tonight.
HRRRv4 model
Nam 3km model
As an upper-level trough currently over central North Dakota moves farther east through this evening will likely see scattered showers and thunderstorms become more numerous across the Northland due to better forcing associated with the trough.
Stronger winds aloft over the region will enhance the amount of wind shear needed for severe thunderstorm development over parts of the Northland later today.
Skies are clearing a bit at least over western/southern portions of the Northland early this afternoon while overcast conditions continue over the Arrowhead into far northern Wisconsin. Locations that are seeing skies clear will likely have more instability that’ll build up as temperatures warm this afternoon, while areas that remain fairly cloudy will have less instability and cooler temperatures along with a lower risk for stronger storms later today.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Wednesday, July 19, 2023 (loop time ends 11:56 AM CT)
Here’s a look at the surface-based cape as of early this afternoon.
Values of around 1000 to 1700 J/kg in the yellow and orange areas which is enough for severe thunderstorm development.
System approaching from the northwest is a strong one for this time of the year (note the spin) with an upper-level low moving southeast out of southern Manitoba this afternoon.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Wednesday, July 19, 2023 (loop time ends 11:40 AM CT)
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches were reported around the Hibbing area this morning.
Rainfall Totals from Wednesday morning, July 19, 2023
Source: MesoWest
Totals below are through Noon Wednesday.
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 2.00″
Eveleth, MN: 0.87″
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 0.50″
Esko, MN: 0.49″
Cloquet, MN: 0.46″
Superior Airport: 0.43″
Saginaw, MN: 0.37″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.37″
Bigfork, MN: 0.34″
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.28″
Duluth Airport: 0.25″
Isabella, MN: 0.18″
Minong, WI: 0.16″
Poplar, WI: 0.14″
French River, MN: 0.13″
Webb Lake, WI: 0.11″
Cable, WI: 0.11″
Hill City, MN: 0.08″
Littlefork, MN: 0.07″
Ely, MN: 0.06″
Spooner, WI: 0.05″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.05″
Siren, WI: 0.04″
Walker, MN: 0.04″
Glidden, WI: 0.03″
Clam Lake, WI: 0.02″
McGregor, MN: 0.02″
Ashland, WI: 0.02″
Thanks for reading!
Tim