6:34 PM Wednesday, June 19, 2024
The unfortunate news is that more rain is expected at times in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Friday into this weekend. However, it appears that the heaviest rainfall will occur a bit further south than the areas affected by Tuesday’s system.
The current forecast suggests that the Northland may receive an additional half inch to an inch of rain from Friday to Saturday. Higher amounts are possible in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with rainfall totals potentially reaching 2 to 3 inches. It is important to note that actual rain totals could vary, possibly being lower or higher than today’s computer model predictions.
Currently, the highest likelihood of rain appears to be between Friday night and Saturday morning, though there may be some scattered showers beforehand, particularly during the Thursday and Friday period.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Thursday to 7 PM Friday.
Flood warnings are now extended until 4 PM Thursday for the North Shore, Arrowhead region in northeast Minnesota, and additional areas in northern Minnesota.
-Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations is occurring. Previously passable roads may now be flooded as rivers continue to rise and will crest in the next 12 to 24 hours.
-Campers and hikers should avoid flooded trail crossings. If camping at a site along or near the banks of rivers or streams, move away from those locations and seek higher ground. Trails in hilly terrain can quickly become unstable during or shortly after heavy rainfall.
Isolated to scattered flash floods are possible on Friday and Friday night in the Northland (indicated by green and yellow areas on the map), while a higher risk of widespread flash flooding (shown in red on the map) encompasses parts of south-central and eastern Minnesota, extending into west-central Wisconsin.
Significant river flooding is possible in areas marked yellow and likely in those marked orange through June 24th, 2024.
Note: Duluth has received nearly 6 inches of rain this June, whereas by the 19th of last June, only 0.05 inches had been recorded.
Updated rainfall totals for June 2024, as of 4 PM on the 19th
Duluth, MN
Total: 5.97″
Departure: +3.38″ above normal
Ashland, WI
Total: 5.95″
Departure: +3.46″ above normal
Hibbing, MN
Total: 5.69″
Departure: +3.13″ above normal
Brainerd, MN
Total: 4.85″
Departure: +2.41″ above normal
International Falls, MN
Total: 2.58″
Departure: +0.31″ above normal
June has been exceptionally wet across much of the Northland, with rainfall totals reaching 150-200% above the norm, as indicated by the blue hues on the map below.
Ensemble models consistently suggest a wet pattern throughout the remainder of June, with expected rainfall totals ranging from approximately 2 to 4 inches or higher across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Today, a robust upper-level ridge persisted over much of the southern and eastern U.S., while an upper-level trough extended from the western U.S. to central Canada. The upper Midwest remained under a southwest flow aloft due to the positioning of the ridge to the east and the trough to the west.
90s into southeastern Canada today!
There are no indications of persistent heat affecting the Northland in the near future, though temperatures may reach the 80s in some areas of the Northland by early next week.
Thanks for reading!
Tim