5:55 PM Thursday, March 27, 2025
The level of disagreement observed in the computer models is approaching an all-time high as we head into the weekend.
I will refrain from discussing the weekend system due to the lack of consensus among the computer models. However, I must note that the GFS model has been slowly converging to the European solution today, while the NAM shows very little precipitation occurring in the Northland this weekend. Snow and ice amounts for Saturday-Sunday are uncertain due to the different model forecasts.
Onto Friday’s mess
A warm layer of air aloft will be present in the Northland on Friday, with 850mb temperatures ranging from around 0°C near the Ontario border to approximately +6 to +10°C in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. This means that any precipitation occurring on Friday will fall as rain due to this warmer layer aloft.
The likelihood of rain freezing on Friday will depend on surface temperatures at your location. A northeasterly wind is expected to bring colder air, resulting in surface temperatures of approximately 29 to 35 degrees in parts of the Northland. If surface temperatures are 32 degrees or lower, anticipate some icing on Friday. However, if surface temperatures are 33 degrees or higher, little to no icing will occur.
We anticipate a significant temperature contrast on Friday, with southern Minnesota experiencing temperatures in the 70s and possibly even the 80s, while temperatures in the 30s are expected in northeastern Minnesota.
Euro model temperature forecast valid 7 AM Friday to 10 PM Friday.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 1 AM Tonight to 1 AM Saturday morning.
Purple – Freezing Rain
Pink – Wintry Mix
Green – Rain
Blue – Snow
A winter weather advisory is in effect Friday to early Saturday morning for parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin (purple area on the map)
Ice Accumulation Forecasts — Friday to early Saturday morning
Duluth: Depending on the computer model, ice accumulations could range from a light glaze to 0.10 inches, or as much as 0.30 to 0.50 inches, with the Euro guidance indicating the most ice. If we observe freezing rain or sleet in Duluth, the likelihood appears highest Friday afternoon, particularly later in the afternoon and into the evening.
Note: Gusty northeast winds of 25 to 45 mph are expected in Duluth from Friday to Sunday morning. If ice builds up significantly (about a quarter inch or more) Friday afternoon or night, there may be some power outages due to the strong winds and ice. While this chance is low, it is still a possibility.
There is a possibility of snowfall in the far northern regions of Minnesota and the Arrowhead area on Friday afternoon and Friday night, with an expected accumulation of 1 to 3 inches.
Little to no snow is expected in Duluth Friday or Friday night.
Elevated CAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates are expected over the Northland on Friday, which could lead to thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.
There is a level 1/5 or a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday in parts of northwest Wisconsin (dark green on the map). Hail up to quarter size (1″ diameter) is the primary severe weather threat.
It should also be noted that we may observe a few instances of thunder freezing rain or thunder sleet in parts of the Northland on Friday afternoon and Friday evening.
Thanks for reading!