7:41 PM Sunday, April 13, 2025
- Scattered showers at times tonight will transition to wet snow or a rain/snow mix across northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead early Monday morning, and this precipitation will linger into Monday evening.
- East-central Minnesota, including Duluth and northwest Wisconsin, will see scattered showers tonight, with some light rain on Monday into Monday evening which could mix with some wet snowflakes at times, mainly inland from Lake Superior.
- Gusty northwest winds develop late tonight and continue into Tuesday morning, with wind gusts between 20 and 35 mph, to as high as 45 mph, especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
- Cooler Monday and Tuesday with highs in the mid 30s to low-mid 40s on Monday and mainly in the 40s on Tuesday.
- Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will be cold, with temperatures in the teens and 20s in the Northland.
- Rain chances return late in the week (Thursday-Friday) and again around April 20-22 as two more systems look to affect the Northland, with the second system looking like it could be a strong one right now.
There’s been a trend in the computer models throughout the day for less precipitation in parts of the Northland with this system tonight and Monday.
Far northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead continue to have the highest chance for more significant amounts of precipitation, which could reach half an inch or more by Monday evening.
Farther south less precipitation is expected with amounts of just a trace to a tenth of an inch or so from east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin including for Duluth.
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for Monday.
Up to 2 inches of slushy snow may occur in northern Minnesota, including the Arrowhead, with as much as 4 inches in far northern Minnesota near the Ontario border.
Parts of northwest Wisconsin, inland from Lake Superior, could see up to an inch of snow, mainly Monday night.
Duluth area: Light rain or a rain/snow mix is expected on Monday with little to no snow accumulation.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 10 PM this evening to 7 AM Tuesday.
Rain – green
Snow – blue
HRRR model wind gust forecast valid from Midnight tonight to 7 AM Tuesday.
A broad area of low pressure stretches from eastern Iowa to northwest Wisconsin early this evening; this low will consolidate into one main surface low over western/central portions of Lake Superior on Monday while deepening to around 992-995 mb.
A strengthening mid/upper-level trough will also move east out of the Dakotas and across the upper Midwest tonight and Monday.
In order for there to be a chance for frozen precipitation, temperatures at 850 mb must drop below 0°C, and as you can see, that type of cold is still pretty far to the northwest early this evening. However, as the surface low moves over Lake Superior and the upper-level system approaches, cold air advection should become stronger, allowing the rain to switch to wet snow or a rain/snow mix in northern Minnesota on Monday.
Thanks for reading!