6:32 PM Friday, April 25, 2025
A rainy system is set to cross the Northland early next week.
Scattered showers could begin as soon as late Saturday night or Sunday, but most of the rain looks to occur on Monday and Monday night, with thunderstorms also expected.
Widespread rainfall totals of 0.5 to over 1″ are possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with this system early next week.
We’re still looking at a risk for some strong to severe thunderstorms in all of northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin next Monday, April 28th.
The highest risk of severe weather is in the orange area on the map below, covering much of southern Minnesota and western, central, and southern Wisconsin. The yellow area also has a chance for severe thunderstorms.
One factor that might reduce the severe threat in the Northland is the possibility of repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms on Monday. If this occurs, it could lower the amount of warm air, moisture, and instability in the area. However, storms could still produce hail and frequent lightning because of enough elevated instability (CAPE) and steep mid-level lapse rates.
Note: Heavy rain, rather than severe thunderstorms, might be a bigger worry in some areas on Monday due to trends observed today.
Euro model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM to 10 PM Monday.
Scattered showers may start in the Northland late Saturday night or Sunday as warm air and moisture move in ahead of a low-pressure system and trough crossing the Rockies on Sunday.
Instability looks pretty limited on Sunday, so we probably won’t see any thunderstorms with these showers.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM Sunday.
Believe it or not, we could see the rain mix with or change to a period of wet snow early Tuesday morning on the backside of this system in far northeast Minnesota, but little to no snow accumulation is expected.
Not expecting any snow in Duluth Tuesday morning.
Thanks for reading!