The trough causing severe weather in the Dakotas today will move northeast into the Northland on Monday, but it will weaken as it encounters a lingering ridge to the east. This, combined with minimal to no height falls from the approaching trough, makes widespread rain unlikely. Instead, there may be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Northland on Monday and Monday evening, thanks to warm air, moisture, and instability in the area. However, severe storms are not expected, and any development will likely remain scattered.
Below is the NAM 3 km model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM to 10 PM Monday.
The heaviest rainfall tonight and Monday is expected to stay over parts of the Dakotas, following the path of the surface and upper low, with totals ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 inches or more.
In northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, rainfall is expected to range from a trace to 0.1 inches, with isolated areas potentially receiving up to 0.25 inches.
Fog is expected to persist tonight and into Monday morning, with a dense fog advisory in effect for areas like the Twin Ports, Moose Lake, Cloquet, and the North Shore from Two Harbors to Silver Bay. Visibility may drop to a quarter mile or less due to the fog.
The fog is expected to gradually clear by Monday afternoon, and it seems likely that Monday night and Tuesday will have little to no fog.
Warmth continued today with widespread 70s and 80s across the region, but cooler temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s were found once again closer to Lake Superior.
Note: International Falls hit a high of 80 today, 13 degrees above the normal for September 14th, but still shy of the record high of 88 set in 1920. Typically, the last 80-degree day here falls on September 15th, with the latest ever recorded being October 20th in 1953. Last year, the final 80-degree day was on September 28th.
On Saturday, Utah experienced two tornadoes, which might seem surprising, but it’s not that unusual since the state typically gets around two tornadoes annually. However, in 2025, there have already been seven tornadoes so far.
The threat for severe weather through this evening shifts to parts of the northern Plains, where a tornado watch is in effect until 9 PM for central North Dakota and far northern South Dakota.
Tornado warnings, highlighted in red and pink outlines, have been reported across the Dakotas this afternoon. The activity started near Mobridge, South Dakota, before shifting into North Dakota, mainly around and to the north or east of Bismarck.
There have been 12 tornado reports in the Dakotas so far today.
Here’s a glimpse of today’s system captured through the GOES-16 infrared satellite loop, concluding at 5:16 PM CT on Sunday, September 14, 2025.
Viewing the MRMS radar loop via Weatherwise, with the animation ending at 5:38 PM on Sunday, September 14, 2025.
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