A strong low-pressure system, with readings near 987 to 990mb (29.15 to 29.23 inches), is set to move east-southeast from eastern South Dakota on Wednesday. Much like a wintertime clipper, it will bring impressive jet dynamics and strong lift as it moves across the upper Midwest.
Some rain is expected in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday, but the guidance varies on how much and where it will fall.
In the warm, humid, and unstable air far south of the Northland, severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of bad weather possible in parts of the Midwest.
Some models, like the NWS Blend of Models and HREF, are predicting between 0.75 and over 1 inch of rain in Duluth on Wednesday, while the Euro model is much drier, calling for only about 0.10 inches, with heavier amounts farther south.
Duluth area: Most of the rain from this next system will fall during the day on Wednesday, tapering off by late afternoon or early evening. Showers are expected to start in the morning, between roughly 4 and 7 AM.
Temperatures in Duluth on Wednesday may remain in the 50s with a NE wind of 15-30 mph.
Note, Today, Duluth ended its streak of five straight days with peak wind gusts of 30 mph or more. The winds were much calmer, topping out at just 24 mph.
HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid through 10 PM Wednesday.
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…Temperatures…
In parts of the Northland, temperatures at 4 PM Tuesday were about 5 to 10 degrees colder than at the same time Monday, while other areas were actually 5 to 10 degrees warmer. It all comes down to cloud cover and whether your location caught a rain-cooled shower this afternoon.
Late this afternoon, temperatures hovered in the 60s, with a few spots in the southwest climbing into the low 70s. By mid-June, normal highs across the Northland are usually in the low to mid-70s.
…Wildfire Smoke…
This spring, wildfire smoke has been noticeably absent in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Looking north into Canada, there are several active wildland fires (marked by red and purple icons), but their smoke hasn’t reached us yet—either because the fires are relatively small or the winds haven’t been favorable long enough to carry the smoke south.
In recent springs, we’ve experienced at least a couple of significant smoke events by this time, so this clearer air has been a welcome change. We’ll see if the trend continues.
…Severe Thunderstorms Wednesday…
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday across the Midwest, targeting the same regions that have been battered repeatedly this spring. A level 4 out of 5 moderate risk is in effect, covering parts of central Illinois and stretching into western Indiana.
Tornadoes, including some potentially strong and long-track EF2 or higher, along with damaging winds of 60–80 mph and large hail up to golf ball size or larger, are possible in the risk areas. The highest tornado threat is in the red-shaded area on the map.
Severe weather isn’t expected Wednesday in northeast Minnesota or northwest Wisconsin, but a few severe thunderstorms could make it as far north as southern Minnesota and into central and southern Wisconsin, though the risk is lower than in areas farther south.
Illinois averages around 64 tornadoes per year, based on data from 1996 to 2025.
Illinois has already been hit by 149 tornadoes in 2026.
