A system on Friday is expected to bring widespread rain across much of the Upper Midwest; however, the Northland—particularly northern Minnesota, the Arrowhead, and the North Shore south to Duluth—may see significantly less rain, with little to none currently anticipated.
The heaviest rainfall is expected across southern and central Minnesota, extending into central and southern Wisconsin, with totals potentially reaching 1 to 2 inches or more by Saturday morning.
Note: With easterly winds sweeping across Lake Superior, isolated lake-effect rain showers may develop intermittently from Friday through the weekend near the lake, though they are expected to be brief and relatively light.
The map below represents a blend of forecast models, incorporating some that show the rain shield farther north while the majority indicate it will remain farther south. As a result, I expect the Blend of Models to trend toward lower rainfall predictions near and north of the black line on the map over the next 24 hours.
A weaker disturbance is moving through the region tonight, bringing a few scattered showers, though any rainfall is expected to be light.
Radar loop from Wednesday, September 16, 2026, showing activity from 3:39 PM to 5:39 PM CT.
Rainfall tonight in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin is expected to range from a trace to 0.1 inches, with isolated areas potentially receiving up to a quarter inch.
An active weather pattern persists today. In the southeast, a large upper-level ridge dominates, while to its west, a plume of deep tropical moisture extends from the southwestern U.S. into parts of the Midwest. Meanwhile, a strong system remains nearly stationary over northern California, and another powerful system moves east-southeast into northern Manitoba, Canada.
GOES-19 water vapor loop from Wednesday, September 16, 2026, showing data from 11:45 AM to 5:35 PM CT.
Note that the system currently over California is expected to move slowly northeast over the next few days, reaching the northern Plains and upper Midwest by early next week. By the time it arrives, however, it appears quite weak, and any associated rainfall in our area is likely to be minimal.
Here’s a look at the 500mb chart from late Wednesday afternoon.
