6:26 PM Tuesday, May 9, 2023
Will continue to see scattered showers in the Northland over the next few days with pockets of heavy rainfall possible similar to what’s happened over the last few days. Some of us will see very little rain, while others see more significant downpours at times through Thursday.
There is also a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/evening in far northern Minnesota with large hail of quarter size (1″ diameter) being the primary severe weather threat.
High of 66 at the Duluth Airport today (May 9, 2023) 2nd time so far this month with a temperature of at least 60 degrees. Average number of 60 degrees days in May is 18 days.
Highs Wednesday and Thursday will mainly be in the 70s in the Northland with cooler 40s and 50s closer to Lake Superior, but the lake wind Wednesday and Thursday doesn’t look very strong (similar to today) so the lake cooling shouldn’t spread very far inland.
A stronger NE wind is expected Friday into Saturday resulting in a stronger push of cool lake air which will help keep high temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s near Lake Superior and in Duluth for Friday and Saturday with milder more seasonable temperatures farther inland.
There is a chance that will see more low clouds/fog develop at times near Lake Superior through Saturday due to the easterly wind, lingering moisture and the temperature contrast which will remain in place across the area.
Rainfall totals will continue to vary across the Northland through Thursday morning. All in all, a more typical summertime rainfall pattern where some get hit, others not so much.
Here’s a look at two model forecasts through 7 AM Thursday.
Note — Rain chances in Duluth look highest tonight through Wednesday morning (before Noon) after that it looks like we might stay mostly dry Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.
3km NAM model radar forecast through 7 AM Thursday.
HRRR model radar forecast through 7 AM Thursday.
Not a whole lot of change in the weather pattern today.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Tuesday, May 9, 2023 (loop time ends 6 PM CT)
Zoomed in view of where we saw some heavy rain early this Tuesday morning with radar rainfall estimates of 1 to 3 inches over a small portion of eastern Aitkin County into southern Carlton County where a Flash Flood Warning was issued for a few hours early today.
Here’s a larger view of radar estimated rainfall totals from early Tuesday morning as we saw scattered thunderstorms producing torrential downpours move ENE across parts of the Northland.
Tim